West Side Story is tracking towards a $12-17 million opening as it has to win over adults & those unsure of musicals

Steven Spielberg’s box office power is about to be tested this weekend as his take on West Side Story is finally hitting the big screen after a year’s delay due to the pandemic. While reviews are glowing and it’s generating considerable Oscar buzz, West Side Story has to deal with its target audience of older adults still being apprehensive about going to the movies during the pandemic and musicals not necessarily lighting up the box office in recent memory.

West Side Story is tracking towards an opening weekend of $12-17 million, per “Deadline.” This might seem low but it’s a solid number to start with because there is some uncertainty about the target audience rushing out to see the film on opening weekend. House of Gucci was a ray of sunshine that adults would brave the theater for the right film when it opened to $14.4 million over three days and $22 million over five. It was certainly a step in the right direction but it was also boosted by Thanksgiving holiday moviegoing. West Side Story won’t really see that bump for at least another week when school and work begin to break for the long Christmas into the New Year holiday. House of Gucci also had Lady Gaga and her name alone brought in tickets. Spielberg’s name is the selling point with West Side Story because there are no huge stars in its huge ensemble cast, although most are getting raves for their performances here.

The other hurdle for West Side Story is that movie musicals are a long way away from lighting up the box office like they did when Chicago, Les Miserables, Dreamgirls, or Hairspray hit the big screen. In The Heights, released this summer, is a film that West Side Story is being compared to because their great reviews are nearly identical (West Side Story is 96% fresh while In The Heights was fresh at 94%), they both had solid early buzz and both musicals feature a Puerto Rican NYC denizen storyline. In The Heights was tracking for a $20 million opening before it massively underperformed with an opening of $11.5 million. Some blamed the film hitting HBO Max at the same time for the underperformance but Samba TV measured a light reception for the film on the streaming service. West Side Story has the advantage because, while In The Heights comes from Lin Manuel Miranda, it doesn’t match the brand popularity of his more successful stage endeavor, Hamilton. Here, Spielberg is the brand, and West Side Story is a legacy IP that could attract more of an audience if they’re willing to brave the multiplex. That being said, musicals can be very niche and a tough sell. Even something like Tick, Tick…Boom!, which is also generating strong reviews, isn’t exactly lighting Netflix on fire either. It’s probably doing well enough but it didn’t crack the U.S. top ten when it hit the streamer which is a bit concerning for a buzzed-about Oscar hopeful.

For Spielberg, we have to compare this film to his non-event endeavors that attract awards attention. Those films tend to make most of their grosses after the opening weekend because they tend to have tremendous legs due to good reviews and good word of mouth. War Horse took in 91% of its total gross after opening weekend while Lincoln came in at 88%, Bride of Spies at 79%, and The Post at 76%. West Side Story will also hope for the holiday awards push to allow it to leg it out through the new year.

Do YOU think West Side Story’s box office tracking is accurate or will it soar higher due to its solid reviews?