Weekend Box Office Predictions: Lisa Frankenstein should top Argylle (but not by much)

Last Updated on March 5, 2024

Another low-wattage weekend is hot on the heels of last weekend’s disappointing opening for Matthew Vaughn’s would-be franchise starter, Argylle. Typically, studios are wary of putting out any major movies on Super Bowl weekend, as virtually no one goes to movies on game day. That said, there have been exceptions to the rule, with Taken and Chronicle both being big openers way back in the day. In recent years, though, the numbers have been more modest, with Death on the Nile taking in $12.8 million in 2022 and Magic Mike’s Last Dance cratering with a measly $8.3 million opening last year.

This weekend’s sole wide new release, Lisa Frankenstein, isn’t likely to do much better. Initially, Box Office Pro had it opening anywhere from $7-12 million, but the early reviews have been abysmal, and now the opening is pegged from anywhere between $5-9 million. Given that it only has a $14 million budget, that’s not as bad a result as it may seem for Zelda Williams’ directorial debut, which stars rising scream queen Kathryn Newton and Riverdale‘s Cole Sprouse. The movie has a screenplay by Diablo Cody, and even if it does modest business, it’s possible that it could wind up like Jennifer’s Body and become a cult hit down the road. I think a $7 million debut and a first-place finish is the best this can hope for.

But, the question is whether Lisa Frankenstein will take out Argylle in week 2. Had the word of mouth been better for this movie, I would have thought yes, but the C+ CinemaScore is an all-out disaster. I’m predicting at least a 65% drop in week 2 (on the low end), but it could have an even worse decline. The best-case scenario is that it clears about $6 million this weekend, which would be good enough for second place. Apple’s best bet would be to have Universal pull this from theatres and dump it on Apple TV + to take advantage of the marketing campaign. I gave it a positive review last week. Since then, I’ve had more than a few people reach out to me on X to tell me they agreed with my assessment that it’s decent, if overlong (by a half hour) with a few too many ridiculous action scenes (the ice skating on the oil slick sequence almost kills the movie) and that darn CGI cat.

Third and fourth place should go to Wonka and The Beekeeper. Wonka has become a significant hit for WB and seems poised to launch a franchise for the studio and leading man, Timothee Chalamet. Movies like this don’t only do well theatrically – they have the habit of becoming perennial favourites. Between this and Dune Part 2, which is tracking well, Chalamet may end 2024 as one of the biggest stars. The Beekeeper also continues to do solid business, with it set for a $60-65 million finish, an excellent result for a modestly budgeted action flick. Amazon-MGM is happy with the result, with them pre-emptively buying the rights to director David Ayer and star Jason Statham’s next movie, Levon’s Trade, which has a script by Sylvester Stallone. The Illumination comedy Migration should round out the top five. While it did only modest business compared to the rest of Illumination’s films, it’ll likely turn a nice profit for the studio, even if I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Migration 2.

Here are our predictions:

1. Lisa Frankenstein: $7 million
2. Argylle: $6 million
3. Wonka: $3.5 million
4. The Beekeeper: $3 million
5. Migration: $2.8 million

Are you going to see any movies this Super Bowl weekend? Let us know in the comments.