Weekend Box Office Predictions: Hold Overs and Re-Releases set to rule the weekend

There is no sugar coating it, this will be another horrible weekend at the box office. The official end to the summer movie season is generally a slow time at the theaters, but it seems odd that no studio hopped on this date to throw out something with a bit of heat behind it, especially after the success of Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings showed that the holiday can pull in solid numbers when it set the record with $71.4 million just last year.

This weekend sees Marvel try their hand at re-releasing one of the biggest movies ever made, with what they are dubbing The More Fun Stuff Version of Spider-Man: No Way Home having the widest release of the weekend on 3,850 screens. It will be interesting to see if the added 11 minutes is enough to get people to spend money on a film that has been readily available on home video for several months. The closest comp for this release would be in 2019 when marvel re-released Spider-Man: Far From Home over the slow Labor Day weekend to $4.3 Million in returns. However at that time, Far From Home was still a relatively new release that had not yet hit home video. It is possible this re-release can break out and achieve a first place finish, as one can never underestimate the power of Marvel.

Meanwhile, Universal will try to end the 2022 Summer Movie Season by re-releasing the film that started the summer blockbuster trend back in 1975: Jaws, in both Imax and Real D 3D screens. This is actually the film I will be venturing out to see this weekend, as it is one of my all time favorites and I am a 3D enthusiast. I’m very much looking forward to seeing this one in a way I never have before. (Dear Universal, for those of us who still love 3D content and have a full 3D set-up in our homes, it sure would be nice to actually OWN this one on 3D Blu Ray, as well as any other 3D titles you have laying around *cough* Jurassic World: Dominion *cough*.) We don’t have to go too far back for the closest comp for this release, as just a few weeks ago we saw the re-release of Steven Spielberg’s classic E.T: The Extra Terrestrial take in just $1.07 Million during its re-release “opening” weekend. However, Jaws is premiering on more screens than E.T, so I expect it to do slightly better.

The only real new theatrical release is the Regina Hall/ Sterling K. Brown starring Honk For Jesus, Save Your Soul. The film’s scarce marketing, low theater count (opening on just 1800 screens) and simultaneous release on the Peacock streaming service will definitely limit its potential at the box office, however decent reviews calling the film a well-acted satire that takes aim at organized religion may help put a few extra butts in the seats.

The real wild card of this weekend is the first ever National Cinema Day on Saturday, which will see most theaters around the country offering $3 tickets to any movie, at any time, on any format. It is a pretty good idea to entice people back to the theaters, as ticket prices have gotten quite astronomical, but the question is: with nothing all that new to offer, will people show up?

Even with Spider-Man out there, I think the weekend will go to one of the pre-existing summer holdovers: Bullet Train or Top Gun: Maverick. But which will it be? Bullet Train has been posting solid daily numbers, but my money is on Top Gun: Maverick reclaiming the top of the charts in its 15th week of release. Even though it is currently available to purchase on VOD, this may be where those $3 tickets come into play on Saturday when people realize they can take the entire family to see the biggest movie of the summer for less than it generally costs for just one adult ticket. 

Last weekend’s champ, The Invitation, will have a fairly large drop given its C cinema score, indicating people didn’t really enjoy it. I would be surprised if this one hits above $4 Million this weekend, but again, National Cinema Day is really throwing a wrench into things as $3 tickets may bring more people out to theaters who show up and say “What is The Invitation? Eh, for three bucks who cares?! Two for The Invitation please! Credit card… you got it!”

This weekend has the potential to be the lowest grossing weekend of the year, beating out the weekend of Jan. 28 when the Top 10 accumulated just $30.7 Million with the number one movie being: Spider-Man: No Way Home in its 7th week of release. Could the two lowest weekends of the year be fronted by Spider-Man?

Let us know if you plan on checking out a $3 flick on Saturday in the comments and don’t forget to check back with us on Sunday when we have a full rundown of this weekend’s box office.