Weekend Box Office Predictions: Fast X to open well, but not spectacularly

This weekend sees the release of Fast X, the tenth instalment of the Fast Saga, and the first of a two (or three) part finale for the long-lasting franchise. While box office forecasters all agree that the movie will top the box office, consigning Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 to second place, just how much it will make remains a question. The franchise has been on a downward trend since Furious 7 opened to $147 million. The Fate of the Furious opened to a strong $98.7 million, which was a notable drop, although many believe the audiences who wanted to pay tribute to the late Paul Walker explain why F7 did so well. F8 opened slightly better than Fast & Furious 6 ($97 million) and handily defeated Fast Five ($86 million). 

By comparison, F9 opened with $70 million, which seems like a huge decline, but we should also remember that the movie opened at the height of the pandemic. In the summer of 2021, audiences weren’t really going to theatres, and it still ended up ranking as the year’s fifth highest-grossing film.

Yet, many people believe that, given the mixed reaction to F9, franchise fatigue has set in. However, when I hit CinemaCon a month ago, Vin Diesel actually addressed this, saying that people thought Fast & Furious 6 would underperform. Indeed, I remember it went up against The Hangover: Part III, and many people thought the comedy sequel would defeat it domestically. It didn’t happen, with the later film underwhelming and F6 being a massive hit. Will lightning strike twice?

Box Office Pro has the film opening around $58 million, which would be disastrous for a movie that cost around $340 million. I personally think it will debut on the higher end, around $70 million, given how huge the turnout has been at promo screenings and how much audiences seem to be digging the film (as a big fan of the franchise, I was mixed). I actually think the overseas opening will be more important, with F9 having flopped in the all-important China market. We’ll have to wait and see. It needs to make about a billion dollars worldwide to be judged a major success.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 should continue to play well, with it likely heading to a $30 million gross, as it will be losing most of its premium screens. The Super Mario Bros. Movie, despite being available digitally, should come in third place with about $10 million. 

Predictions:

1. Fast X – $70 million
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 – $30 million
3. The Super Mario Bros. Movie – $10 million
4. Book Club: The Next Chapter – $3 million
5. Evil Dead Rise – $2 million

Do you think Fast X will open better or worse than I think? Let us know in the comments!