The Matrix, Sing 2 to fight for second this weekend as No Way Home looks to repeat top spot

Last Updated on December 23, 2021

This period of the box office is usually pretty lucrative because the adults are off work for the holiday and the kids are free from school. Between the Christmas break and New Years Day, films can pull in a hefty amount of money as people flock to the movies for a daily diversion but we are living in a very different time right now. The box office is much more robust than last year when the pandemic began to ravage the industry but it’s still very much with us and it’s making some, particularly older adults, apprehensive about sitting in a crowded movie theater. And yet, this weekend sees a few new releases, The Matrix Resurrections, Sing 2, and The King’s Man, and all of them are looking to fight for second at the box office.

Last weekend’s Spider-Man: No Way Home scored the second-best domestic opening of all time with its $260 million debut, and predictions for this weekend (December 24-27) have it coming in with about $143 million, with tracking suggesting it could go higher because word of mouth has been that good. The result would be the third-best second ever and a total that will put it WAY ahead of its competition. The film pulled in $37.1 million on a Monday this week and that’s with a lot of the country still not completely off for the break. After Monday, the film has grossed $297.2 million domestically which is 3% ahead of 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens during the same frame. That film’s second weekend was $149.2 million after debuting with $247.9 million the weekend before. All eyes will be on if Spider-Man: No Way Home can top that.

Of the newcomers, The Matrix Resurrections has the best shot of enticing moviegoers and tracking has the film grossing $60-70 million over Wednesday-Sunday. Warner Bros. is being more modest at $40 million but the success of the R-rated sequel will come down to the fans and if the word of mouth is positive within its first few days of release. Critical reviews are decent enough at 68% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes with 145 reviews counted so it’s in pretty good shape there but the caveat here is HBO Max. This is the last of the Warner Bros. releases to go day-and-date on streaming and in theaters. This COULD impact the box office but The Matrix is such a visual spectacle that most may opt to catch it on the big screen. Dune ($41 million opening) and Godzilla vs. Kong ($48.1 million opening) show that the release model doesn’t totally handicap a release but it’s clear that some money is being left on the table by opening a film this way. Tracking for The Matrix Resurrections would be much higher if not for its streaming release as well.

Sing 2 is tracking to debut in the $40-50 million range which would be a solid result for the animated family film. “Deadline” reports that older women are slow to return to the movies during the pandemic but this hasn’t been true of moms that want to get the family and kids out of the house. The love for the first Sing should help the sequel as the original film opened during the Christmas 2016 frame to $55.8 million over five days and $75.5 million over six. There will be some pandemic dropoff but Sing 2’s tracking is strong all things considered. Reviews are ok at 67% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and it’ll be a top family choice for those who have already seen Spider-Man too many times.

Tracking for The King’s Man has it in the $20 million range while Disney has been predicting $15-19 million over six days. Out of all the releases this weekend, I think this one is going to have a tougher time breaking out. Despite Kingsman: The Secret Service and Kingsman: The Golden Circle opening to $36.2 million and $39 million respectively, the interest for this Matthew Vaughn-directed prequel doesn’t seem all that high. The film was delayed several times due to the pandemic so trailers for the movie have been around for a VERY long time and it almost feels like we’ve seen the finished product already. Not helping matters is that The King’s Man is the lowest-reviewed of the three movies at 45% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes and this is the kind of film where reviews may matter to those who are on the fence. It’s possible that globally the film will be a hit since the first two films have grossed $825.2 million worldwide collectively but its domestic performance could be in question.

What are YOUR thoughts on this weekend’s box office tracking for The Matrix Resurrections, Sing 2, and The King’s Man?