The Batman has spent the last three weeks at the top of the box office but it’s time for a new champ to enter the ring. The Lost City comes from a sub-genre that hasn’t had much of a presence at the box office lately but Sandra Bullock and Channing Tatum may just change that.
The Lost City has more working against it than for it during this current box office climate which will make its success all the more satisfying. The action/adventure romantic comedy stars Sandra Bullock and Channing Tatum and comedies, in general, haven’t really done the business they used to. The genre has seen more success on streaming so it’s bold for Paramount Pictures to go full-on with a theatrical-only release. Then there is the issue of the target demo. Women have been a tough sell during the pandemic box office and The Lost City is aimed mostly at that demo. November’s House of Gucci was one of the last films to hit with a female audience at the cinema and there is another case that can be made for Dog, which also starred Channing Tatum. Other than the pandemic, maybe the female offerings just haven’t been to their liking. There are signs that The Lost City is something they will take the time to see.
Per Deadline, moviegoing and the comfort level of consumers during the pandemic is at a high at 83%. Women over 35, which is the sweet spot for The Lost City, grew to 78% a week ago. They’re ready for a release like The Lost City and it certainly helps that the film has two very likable leads. Sandra Bullock and Channing Tatum actually possess that long-lost ability to have their name attract audiences. It’s rare at the box office today but they both still have it. Channing Tatum has helped Dog leg it out to $54 million+ at the domestic box office since opening in May and, even though Bullock has found a lot of success on streaming with Bird Box and The Unforgivable, comedies have mostly been good to her in recent years. The actress has taken some breaks between films to be with her family but 2009’s The Proposal and 2013’s The Heat were comedic hits. Her last major theatrical release, Ocean’s Eight, was also a financial success in 2018.
As of this writing, The Lost City is 79% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and good reviews will also make people want to hunt down treasure with The Lost City even more. I’m predicting that The Lost City will top The Batman this weekend with a gross of $30 million.
The Batman will settle for second this weekend but it’s already the success it needs to be. As we continue to look at its run, it will all be about milestones. The film crossed the $300 million mark last weekend and now we will look to $350 million at the domestic box office as its next feat. The film will certainly get there and the $20 million I’m predicting for this weekends gross will help the Caped Crusader answer the call.
Uncharted has kept second place warm for three weeks now but it will see what third place feels like this weekend. The film has seen pretty great holds in the face of competition from The Batman but The Lost City represents its closest direct competition since opening. They both share similar action/adventure DNA and the younger girls who were seeing Uncharted for Tom Holland, may now have their attention on Channing Tatum’s adventure with Sandra Bullock. I’m predicting a gross of $6 million this weekend for Uncharted, which has grossed $126.3 million at the domestic box office as of this writing and $337.7 million globally.
We might get double the Channing Tatum in the top five this weekend. Dog has hung in there since opening last month and some could be interested in a Tatum double feature with Dog and The Lost City. The actor’s appeal has propelled the film to its current level and a dash of good word of mouth hasn’t hurt either. I’m predicting about $3 million for Dog this weekend.
Spider-Man: No Way Home slipped out of the top five last week for the first time since debuting in December but it might just creep back in this weekend with another major milestone in its sights. The film is going to hit $800 million at the domestic box office this weekend which will easily make it the third highest-grossing film of all time at the domestic box office behind Avengers: Endgame ($858.3 million) and Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936.6 million). I’m predicting about $2.5 million for the weekend.
TOP FIVE BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS:
What are YOUR predictions for this weekend’s box office results?