A sluggish summer has seen more than a few movies come in well under expectations, but even so, there was little reason to believe movies like TOY STORY 4, SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME and THE LION KING wouldn’t do gangbusters business. With TS4 currently roping in audiences, SPIDER-MAN set to do the same in a few days, all that leaves is LION KING at the end of next month, and pundits are still expecting the remake to have the biggest, mightiest opening weekend of the summer at $150 million, if not more.
[SEE MORE]
The alteration in the box office predictions for the Disney movie has changed from the preliminary estimates about a month ago, which placed the movie on track for about $180 million to perhaps over $200 million. However, the lesser amount doesn’t signify less interest in the movie since then. On the contrary, the opposite seems to be true, as tickets went on sale on Tuesday and according to ticket site Fandango, the movie is outpacing the sales of other Disney remakes like ALADDIN and JUNGLE BOOK at the same point in their pre-sales, both of which opened to $90 million and $103 million (via Variety). It’s even doing better than 2017’s BEAUTY AND THE BEAST, which opened to $174 million. Variety also reports that LION KING's pre-sales are only bested by AVENGERS: ENDGAME this year.
That said, what’s making pundits so cautious is this summer movie season in general. The box office has proven to be one of the most lackluster in years, with movies like DARK PHOENIX, MEN IN BLACK and SHAFT bombing at the box office, and GODZILLA making far less than expected. Even TOY STORY 4, which had better pre-sales than any animated movie before it, came in well below estimates with $118 million. That’s still a great total, and the third-best animated opening ever, but it was pacing at the same numbers as LION KING is now only days before release.
[SEE MORE]
What is working in LION KING’s favor is the late-July release date. Right now, June has proven a clogged, uninspired month with one uninteresting blockbuster after another, and in the case of TOY STORY, it followed on the heels of another animated film, THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2. For Disney’s remake, the only competition leading up to it will be Sony/Marvel’s SPIDER-MAN – which will be over two weeks old by the time it comes out – and TS4 – which will be just about done with its run as family audiences start looking for something new to see.
Should LION KING come in below the opening total of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST, what will no doubt give it a healthy run at the box office is the name recognition and positive word of mouth from audiences, which it's likely yo get. That all worked much in the same way that has propelled ALADDIN to almost $300 million domestically and over $800 million globally (and counting), despite lackluster reviews and summer competition. Director Jon Favreau dazzled audiences with his JUNGLE BOOK in 2016, and should he do the same with LION KING this year, that could drive business to even greater heights.
THE LION KING is in theaters July 19.