UPDATE: While The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes is definitely going to rule the holiday box office, with an estimated 5-day haul of $43 million, Wish isn’t nipping as closely at its heels as anticipated. Indeed, Deadline is estimating the film will make $35-38 million, which isn’t far off from Ridley Scott’s Napoleon, which was supposed to play a distant third. The film is having a stronger box office showing than expected, with it likely to finish with $30-33 million, while also pulling in blockbuster numbers overseas. It’s another strong showing for an adult-oriented film, and while it’s not exactly Oppenheimer, it proves grown-ups like to go to movies too!
Original story: After a mediocre showing at the box office last weekend, which seemingly put a damper on Lionsgate’s franchise plans, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes is rebounding with an excellent Thanksgiving holiday weekend performance. Deadline has it edging out Disney’s much-hyped Wish for a first-place finish, with the trade expecting the prequel to gross $42 million over the five-day stretch. Wish is expected to be right behind with $41 million, while Ridley Scott’s Napoleon is also doing well, with $29-33 million expected.
While those numbers sound pretty good, it’s worth noting that Thanksgiving used to be a powerhouse weekend for franchises, with The Hunger Games: Catching Fire earning $100 million plus this weekend a decade ago, while the most recent entry, Mockingjay Part 2, made over $80 million in a comparable time frame.
For Disney, Wish’s box office numbers are certainly better than the disastrous $12 million opening seen by their animated flop Strange World, but a far cry from the heyday of Frozen 2, which opened with $130 million plus. Word-of-mouth is excellent, which may propel it to a strong showing at the box office over the holiday season.
In the meantime, Universal’s Trolls franchise seems to have run out of steam, with the film falling to fourth place, being expected to make about $25 million over the holiday. This is a poor showing for a franchise film, with the animated movie unlikely to cross the $100 million mark at the domestic box office. Meanwhile, Eli Roth’s Thanksgiving is looking at just shy of $10 million for the 5-day holiday, which is less than the film deserves, as it’s a nifty little slasher with a terrific opening set piece set at the Black Friday sale from hell.
Which movie are you planning to see over the holiday? Let us know in the comments!