The Batman faces another weekend of zero competition and that will make it very easy for the Matt Reeves-directed hit to take the top spot for the third week in a row.
My predictions for its second weekend were very close to the $66.5 million that the film ultimately grossed in its sophomore frame. As was reported during the box office report on Sunday, The Batman actually had a much better second-weekend hold than several Marvel films and a few previous DC titles. The 50% drop was expected but I did point out that the film will likely level off with a smaller drop in its third outing. This is driven by the fact that there isn’t any competition to speak of and audiences seem to be genuinely enjoying the film. Before we go into what its domestic earnings will be this weekend, let’s look into some foreign prospects that the movie is aiming for.
The Batman is going to hit $500 million globally this week and it’s a great milestone, especially during a box office climate that is still trying to come out of the pandemic. Where it goes from here globally is going to be all about legs. The Batman is getting a China release this weekend which normally is a big deal for Hollywood films as China is a huge market for tentpole releases. The problem is that a Covid spike there has forced the closure of 2,300 theaters in 65 cities including Shanghai and Shenzen which is likely to impact business perhaps by as much as 25%, per Deadline. What looked like a $25 million weekend in China is looking more like a potential $15 million weekend. How it continues to play there will depend on how long these closures will last due to the spike. A lot of people are curious to see if The Batman can leg it out to $1 billion globally and while I believed this could happen at the start of its run, I think the situation in China might make that an issue. Spider-Man: No Way Home didn’t need China to clear $1 billion+, and it still hasn’t secured a release there. That being said, the two films are dealing with two very different levels of hype. I’m not saying that $1 billion is not out of the question for The Batman worldwide but it’s going to be by a smidge if it does happen.
Looking back at the domestic front, I’m predicting about a 40% drop in The Batman’s third weekend for a gross of $40 million. There is a possibility the hold can be even better considering how well most of the top five held last weekend but this will be the most likely result as the DC effort will easily be one of the biggest movies of the year by the end of its run.
Uncharted will be staying put in second place this weekend and it’s looking to have another great hold like it did last weekend. The film only slipped 16.3% from the previous frame and while I don’t think the movie’s hold will be as good this weekend, it’s possible that Uncharted will continue to be the go-to choice for families looking for something fun to watch at the cinema. I bet Sony Pictures is thrilled Disney opted to make Turning Red a Disney+ release because they get to dominate the family market with Uncharted for the remainder of the month. I’m predicting about $7.5 million for the weekend.
With the anomaly of the BTS concert film out of the way, Dog is likely to place third this weekend after experiencing a great hold as well last week. Good reviews, solid word of mouth, the presence of Channing Tatum, and the love for man’s best friend are really giving the movie some serious legs and have turned it into a bit of a sleeper hit. I’m predicting about $4.2 million this weekend.
Spider-Man: No Way Home should maintain fourth place and it will be interesting to see how the film holds up since it has now been released on digital for home viewing this week. Spider-Man: No Way Home has seen some impressive holds the last few weeks and as we’ve seen from films like Sing 2, a digital release doesn’t always kneecap the box office. Sing 2 held up well in the wake of its digital release and that should be no problem for Spidey either. I’m predicting about $3.5 million this weekend as the blockbuster nears $800 million at the domestic box office.
Rounding out the top five should be Death on the Nile, which missed the cut last week only because the BTS concert film killed it at the box office during its one-night release on Saturday. Death on the Nile only slipped 11.9% last weekend, its best hold to date, and it might see similar luck in this frame. I’m predicting about $1.9 million this weekend.
TOP FIVE PREDICTIONS:
THE BATMAN – $40 million
UNCHARTED – $7.5 million
DOG – $4.2 million
SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME – $3.5 million
DEATH ON THE NILE – $1.9 million
What are YOUR predictions for this weekend’s box office results?
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