One of these days, we'll get the coronavirus pandemic under control. However, until that happens, Hollywood executives are at a loss with regard to the release of tentpole films.
A new report hailing from The Hollywood Reporter states that executives in charge of the 2021 movie release schedule are expecting more delays through July. This means that the pandemic could push money-printing films like MGM's No Time to Die, Marvel's Black Widow, and more from their already-delayed premieres. If it feels like we've written about this before it's because we totally have. It's like we're living in a perpetual of deja vu where 2020's most-anticipated films are locked in a seemingly endless loop.
“I think everything substantive between now and Top Gun: Maverick in early July will move. It’s a mess,” predicts one veteran studio executive.
With most major theaters being forced to shut down in March of 2020, it's been almost a full year since going to the cinema was as easy as securing a ticket online. This lapse in ticket and concession sales has put many movie houses at risk of closure or bankruptcy. Even big-time companies like AMC, Alamo Drafthouse, and Regal have felt the sting of the pandemic, forcing them to adapt expensive safety protocols and rethink ticket sale structures. Meanwhile, local indie cinemas are in an even worse position.
The closing of theaters was such a major blow to the film industry that some studios chose to pivot to streaming services, selling some of their most marketable films to platforms like Netflix, Amazon, and others.
“Lest anyone thought that the transition from 2020 into 2021 would magically fix the issues that perplexed the industry for the past almost 12 months, the reality is that the many of the very same market forces are still in play and will continue to inform the strategic decisions of studios and creatives alike,” says Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore. “That said, there is hope for a recovery for the theatrical movie biz on the horizon, but of course that future is in constant flux.”
“The way I’m thinking about the year, the first quarter will be down as much as 90 percent,” says Eric Handler of MKM Partners.
As several studios struggle to adjust to these trying times, some executives believe there could be an upswing in sales as the coronavirus vaccine continues to be distributed to the masses. Some insiders say they expect to see some improvement, but that revenue will still be 30 percent to 40 percent when compared to a three-year average model. “It depends upon on how fast we get to a peak with infections. If they can immunize a million people a day, things will start accelerating,” says Handler.
For the moment, it looks as if more delays are being prepped for many major films. What this means for movies in 2021 remains to be seen, and there's not a whole lot that film fans can do about it. I suppose that when the time comes for movies to return, we'll need to be ready, wallet in hand, and willing to trust that things are under control. Meanwhile, I wouldn't be surprised if some studios are forced to sell their biggest releases to streamers if only to make up for lost money and time. Keep your fingers crossed for a speedy vaccine rollout, my friends. It may be Hollywood's only hope.