Spider-Man: No Way Home tracking, at a minimum, $130 million for its opening as pre-sales suggest an even bigger debut

The time has come! Spider-Man: No Way Home is here to stake its claim as the biggest movie of the year! The third MCU Spidey film has Avengers: Endgame potential and, despite having to deal with the ongoing global pandemic, the movie is going to be a sound reminder of what the box office was like before it was rocked by COVID. We’ve had big openings this year and several releases have proven that the younger demographic will come out and brave the multiplex. Spider-Man: No Way Home is going to be their biggest declaration of this fact and now it’s just a matter of how high the film will actually go as it makes its debut.

Spider-Man: No Way Home’s modest tracking for opening weekend is $130 million at 4,325 locations. Many times tracking will predict a higher opening than that of the studio or studio rivals but tracking is being modest as if they want the headline to be “Spider-Man: No Way Home swings beyond its box office tracking.” Studio rivals are suggesting an opening in the $175 million+ range with $200 million even a possibility. Even if No Way Home is at the low end at $130 million, it will be the first film to open beyond the $100 million mark during the pandemic. That will be a win no matter how you spin it. Why are rivals suggesting a higher debut? Well, let’s look into it!

Spider-Man: No Way Home is the biggest movie that experts have seen on tracking in a VERY long time. The tracking is said to be reminiscent numerically of huge December openings like Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($220 million back in 2017), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker ($177.3 million back in 2019), and Star Wars: Rogue One ($155 million back in 2016). Fandango reported pre-sales that they haven’t seen the likes of since Star Wars: The Force Awakens while the biggest exhibitor in the business, AMC, saw record-breaking pre-sales when tickets became available to the public. “Deadline” is reporting that pre-sales for No Way Home are running 20% ahead of The Rise of Skywalker and 35% behind Avengers: Endgame which boasts the biggest domestic opening of all time with $357.1 million. Before its opening weekend, Endgame repped $120 million in pre-sales while No Way Home is said to be in the $78 million range heading into the weekend.

Sony Pictures tends to be modest about their predictions for opening weekends. They figure it’s better to under-promise and then over-deliver. Sony is already having a great year during the pandemic box office. Venom: Let There Be Carnage is already a pandemic best opening of the year with $90 million and now with the Spider-Man: No Way Home, they’ll have bragging rights to the number one and two spots for the year. Ghostbusters: Afterlife wasn’t a record-breaking opening this year but even its performance has been stellar for Sony. This is a studio that has popped champagne already this year and they’re about to have champagne showers over No Way Home. Sony’s biggest domestic opening ever, oddly enough, is 2007’s Spider-Man 3, which made $151.1 million during the first weekend of May. This will be the figure that most will be looking for No Way Home to match or exceed.

So how do they lure in the uninitiated and those left a little fatigued after the release of Marvel’s Eternals? The reviews for No Way Home are truly stellar. As of this writing, the film sits fresh at 95% with 148 reviews counted. A lot of the consensus is that not only is this the best Spider-Man movie ever but some are even saying its stakes its claim as the best MCU film to date. Tom Holland is also getting praised for what some are calling a career-best performance so far. This is how you get those on the fence into the seats and this allows tracking to rise above expectations. Let’s just say the box office is about to heat up and we’re here for it.

What do YOU think Spider-Man: No Way Home will gross this weekend? Be sure to check us out throughout the weekend as we unveil the grosses for the film as the weekend rolls along before our final box office report on Sunday!