Spider-Man: No Way Home is the first billion-dollar worldwide grosser of the pandemic era so it makes sense that it has become the subject of attention regarding how much profit it will actually take in. Let’s just say that all the money people involved with the film are about to be very happy.
At its current level, “Deadline” reports that Spider-Man: No Way Home is already in the black after hitting the billion-dollar global milestone and it’s already bound for a $242 million net profit after all worldwide, home ancillaries, marketing costs, and participations. There hasn’t been a lot of word that movie theaters will close again in many markets due to the Omicron surge so if that remains to be the case, Spider-Man: No Way Home will see a profit that’s close to 3x what it’s currently generating with an estimated $610 million. Movie theaters have implemented so many COVID-safety measures that it seems unlikely a closure is in play so the latest Spidey sequel will likely hit that estimate.
It should be noted that these projections are not coming from Sony Pictures. Film finance sources who are very familiar with the balance sheets are making the predictions and they’re basing these numbers on overall estimates. The film is set to be Sony’s highest-grossing movie of all time as it will top the $1.13 billion worldwide box office of 2019’s Spider-Man: Far From Home. The estimates are based on what is predicted to be a $1.75 billion worldwide finish for No Way Home with a billion dollars coming from overseas markets and an estimated $750 million domestic take by the end of its run. All of this is without a release in China which is all the more impressive given that China is such a lucrative market. A release date for the film has yet to be set there but No Way Home may not even need China to break $1 billion overseas. The Force Awakens hit the milestone with only $124.1 million from China and No Way Home is hoping to improve on its predecessor in certain markets to make up for the loss of China. Far From Home grossed $28 million in Japan and it’s believed that No Way Home will top that figure when it opens in that market on January 7, 2022.
The $610 million net profit figure for No Way Home would make it become Sony’s most profitable movie of all time. Previous highs for Sony include the $339 million net profit for Spider-Man: Far From Home, $305.7 million net profit for Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, and $200 million net profit for Spider-Man: Homecoming. In terms of Disney/MCU releases, the figure would top Avengers: Infinity War ($500 million net profit), Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($417.5 million net profit), and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker ($300 million net profit).
Since Marvel covered 25% of the film’s production cost ($50 million) they will collect 25% of the combined profit pool thanks to the Disney and Sony loan agreement that sees them sharing characters with each other under their new arrangement. That would mean that Marvel collects $152.5 million if these forecast estimates hold which means that their arrangement with Sony is working out for both entities.
What are YOUR thoughts on Spider-Man: No Way Home’s profit prospects?