A few weeks ago I would’ve easily called Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore topping the second week of Sonic The Hedgehog 2. The film seemed to be getting better buzz than its predecessor and it looked to be an improvement. That all changed when reviews for the movie ended up being mixed and Sonic The Hedgehog 2 majorly overperformed last weekend. What seemed like a sure thing, is looking a little less likely now.
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore is the third installment in the Harry Potter spinoff series and what started off with promise, has seemed to trail off a bit. 2016’s Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opened to an impressive $74 million before going on to gross $234 million domestically and $814 million worldwide. Critics also enjoyed it a bit at 74% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. The franchise saw immediate diminishing returns with 2018’s The Crimes of Grindelwald. That film opened below its predecessor at $62 million before going on to gross $159.5 million domestically and $654.8 million globally. The installment also saw a shift downward response in terms of reviews at 35% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes. The franchise’s five-film plan suddenly looked a bit too ambitious if we were already seeing declines this early in the game.
There were, of course, behind-the-scenes issues. Johnny Depp played Grindelwald in the second film but his still very public defamation case with ex-wife Amber Heard began to take center stage. There were things alleged by Heard in the case that made Warner Bros. decide to go in a different direction, drop Depp, and recast. Mads Mikkelsen takes on the role in The Secrets of Dumbledore, a move that most critics say is an improvement. Filming on the third movie also hit a snag due to the COVID-19 pandemic so its road to its current release date wasn’t smooth but it’s finally here.
The good news is that reviews for The Secrets of Dumbledore are better than its predecessor but the bad news is that the film is still rotten at 57% as of this writing. Had reviews been better, I think the movie would’ve been coming into this weekend with better buzz. There doesn’t seem to be a huge swell of interest from Harry Potter fans and it doesn’t appear that the uninitiated are being persuaded to rush out and see the film this weekend. There are reports that this movie has to do well in order for Warner Bros. to continue with the next two installments and it looks like they’re going to have to look to foreign business to really gauge its success. The Secrets of Dumbledore opened last week in 22 overseason markets to an impressive $58 million so that’s a solid start abroad for the $200 million film. The film opens in 44 additional markets this weekend which should continue its hot streak overseas. On the domestic front, I think The Secrets of Dumbledore is going to fall short of the top spot with an opening of $40 million this weekend.
That means our little blue guy should maintain the top spot at the box office this weekend. Sonic The Hedgehog 2 overperformed last weekend with an opening of $72.1 million, even higher than the $71 million that was originally reported. Word of mouth has been very strong for the Sonic sequel and I believe its “A” CinemaScore and 97% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is a solid indication that its legs will be better than anticipated. I’m predicting that Sonic The Hedgehog 2 ranks first again with a gross of $45 million.
Our next wide release should take third place as Father Stu, starring Mark Wahlberg and Mel Gibson looks to touch on the religion-based crowd. Father Stu is in a unique position as it’s a rare religious film to land distribution by a major Hollywood studio. In this case, it’s Sony Pictures that picked this one up and that was after Wahlberg financed the movie as it has been a passion project of his for years. With Easter falling this Sunday, Father Stu could make some kind of impact with audiences seeking something a bit more inspirational. Sony also opened the film on Wednesday to get ahead of business so we will have to see how its opening day figures turn out. Wahlberg is coming off of a hit already this year with Uncharted, also at Sony, but Father Stu won’t have the same mainstream appeal. Reviews have also fallen short with the movie scoring a rotten rating of 42% on Rotten Tomatoes. I’m predicting that Father Stu will gross around $8 million over five days but there is a chance it goes a bit higher if word of mouth from moviegoers is decent.
The Lost City should rank fourth this weekend and will likely jump ahead of Morbius which fell 74% last weekend and is likely to see another big decline this weekend. The Lost City is still the top choice for women at the box office and it has performed admirably since opening three weeks ago. I’m predicting about $6.5 million for The Lost City this weekend.
Ambulance should round out the top five after opening to a disappointing $8.7 million last weekend. I really wish this one was performing better because it’s much more solid than the box office returns are indicating. Once this film hits VOD and streaming, I think it will find its audience but until then, I’m predicting about $5 million for weekend two.
What are YOUR predictions for this weekend’s box office?
TOP FIVE BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS: