Solo: A Star Wars Story expected to lose over $50 million for Disney

Last Updated on August 5, 2021

For the last few years, it seemed an irrefutable fact that Star Wars was unstoppable, and that the devoted fans of the franchise would always show out in force for the new movies. Over the course of the last few years that has been proven true. However, SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY is proving there can be chinks in the shiny, platinum armor as it continues to disappoint at the box office. Though the movie has yet to approach its third weekend, folks are ready to write it off as a bomb, with analysts saying the movie could lose Disney over $50 million.

The report from THR sources Wall Street analyst Barton Crockett who predicts the movie will lose the hefty sum while noting that other sources say it could lose as much as $80 million. These numbers are taking into account that SOLO is looking to top out at the global box office with about $400 million, a far cry from the billion-dollar grosses of the last three movies. Factor in the production cost of about $250 million (including the famed reshoots) and a marketing sum that likely hit anywhere between $100-200 million and the odds of SOLO coming out a profit are slim. Now I know not to tell a certain someone the odds, but I feel we can make an exception here.

This comes after SOLO suffered a significant drop at the box office in its second weekend. Standing at about $148 million right now, the movie hasn’t even made what ROGUE ONE did during its opening weekend ($155 million). What’s worse, the international markets are rejecting the spinoff flick, with insiders confident the movie won’t even make $20 million in China after an abysmal opening. Total, the movie has made $264 million worldwide, and with bigger movies on the horizon, SOLO doesn’t have many opportunities to straighten its flight path.

Of course, there are the other means of revenue, such as home entertainment, toys, etc, which will all go to help pad Disney and Lucasfilm’s wallets. Plus, we have to remember this is Disney we’re talking about; they can take the hit. Already they’ve released Marvel's BLACK PANTHER and AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR this year, and total they’ve made over $3 billion at the global box office. On top of that, they have Pixar's INCREDIBLES 2 on the way, as well as ANT-MAN AND THE WASP. They will do just fine. Hell, even next year's STAR WARS EPISODE IX will get people excited about Star Wars all over again. 

What this means for the studios is that they’re not invincible when it comes to Star Wars. THR notes that analyst Doug Creutz of Cowen & Co. points to bad marketing to blame for SOLO’s performance, not franchise fatigue. This may be true, but there are be more factors at play. For instance, the movie comes only five months after THE LAST JEDI (the most divisive movie in the series); it came out after people had spent their money on INFINITY WAR and DEADPOOL 2; the reception was lukewarm and; this was never a movie people were dying to see. What this needs to be is a wake-up call for Lucasfilm and Disney, and they now need to be more careful about how they release these movies, knowing they can’t just slap a Star Wars sticker on something and expect it to soar.

SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY is in theaters now.