Well, folks, we’re finally here. It’s been months of speculation, strange turns of events, controversy and a mixture of happy and bewildering surprises, but we’ve trudged through yet another awards season and are now only days away from this year’s Academy Award. This has been one of the most contentious seasons I’ve ever seen, with more blockbusters in the mix as ever before, as well as a handful of head-scratchers. Add that on to what has essentially been nothing but a dumpster fire of PR disasters from the Academy regarding the handling of the broadcast – wherein changes were announced, chastised, and then rescinded – and this has shaped into an Oscar season to keep our eyes glued to.
But all the downright silly decisions from the organization aside, we are back to focusing on the movies and, most importantly, what will take home the trophies in all 24 categories. In past prediction articles, I’ve simply covered the big hitters – like Best Picture, Director and more – but now that it’s the weekend of the awards I may as well get into each award and predict my victors in each.
In terms of the smaller award ceremonies that normally help predict the winners nothing much has happened in the last month, the key awards being the Director’s Guild and the Writer’s Guild, with one solidifying what has been fact all season (that Alfonso Cuaron will win his second directing Oscar) and the latter throwing the writing categories into a tizzy (both a non-Oscar nominee and an underdog won prizes). With that in mind, nothing has changed much outside of perception of certain movies, with a Best Picture win for BLACK PANTHER seeming like a real possibility, and GREEN BOOK getting increasingly chastised for being, well, GREEN BOOK.
[SEE MORE]
One thing that has proven true as the award season has gone on and almost come to a close is that this is by far the most wide-open race that has existed in recent years – surely since the expansion to as many as 10 BP nominees in the last decade. While normally things only seem up in the air for BP, this year you can look at several categories and see a race that could realistically go several ways.
When it comes to BP, there are usually two or three movies that many view as the most likely to win, with pre-Oscar awards (Producer’s Guild, Director’s Guild, Screen Actor’s Guild) often being bestowed on one or two movies. But this year, each of those major prizes went to different movies – namely GREEN BOOK, ROMA and BLACK PANTHER, respectively – and each has a strong case as to why it could win the big award come Sunday. GREEN BOOK is the safe bet, the movie that would’ve won any year in the 90s and likely appeals to the old guard of Oscar voters; ROMA is the critic darling directed by an industry favorite, and is both an achievement in storytelling and technical elements and; BLACK PANTHER is the superstar, the box office crowd-pleaser many people hope will win for many reasons, and one that could surprise thanks to a legion of fans giving it their vote.
Though this has happened before (in 2016, prizes for these were split between THE BIG SHORT, THE REVENANT and SPOTLIGHT), but the thing was those movies didn’t also have factors working against them in the way these three movies do. GREEN BOOK is beloved by many, but loathed by just as many who view it as problematic and dated; ROMA is a Netflix movie, and that fact alone probably has people in the Academy disregarding it completely and; BLACK PANTHER is a comic book movie, which naturally gives it an uphill battle to climb. These are factors that could contribute to each losing Best Picture, while their past victories would prove they could win the day. It’s a strange juxtaposition that also leaves the race open to other movies, like BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY, A STAR IS BORN, THE FAVOURITE or BLACKKKLANSMAN or VICE to win. These are all movies loved for different reasons with other elements backing them up (beloved talent behind and in front of the camera), and though some may have tougher chances than others, I don’t think there’s a single movie in the pack (sans maybe VICE) that has absolutely zero chance of winning. Any could pull out a surprise win over the frontrunners.
You can also look to other categories too and see races that may not be so black and white. While I think Cuaron is a lock for Director, there are some who think Spike Lee could pull out a win for BLACKKKLANSMAN, as the icon has never won an Oscar before, and this is his first nomination across a storied career. Then there are screenplays, with Adapted all over the place, with BLACKKKLANSMAN and IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK now having to make room for CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? as a potential winner after it’s WGA win last week. Then there’s Best Supporting Actor, with Mahershala Ali the strong favorite to win, but also word out there that many in the Academy love them some Richard E. Grant for CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? especially with his bubbly, adorable persona shining through after his nomination.
While I’m usually quite confident going in the night of, this year feels different. While my logical brain is locked on winners, my emotional side feels like it could go somewhere else with several major categories, with reasonable points to back it up. For these picks, I’m going more with the former, as I’ve seen with the Oscars over the years that surprise is never the leading word the ceremony ends with. Those expected to win going in usually do, with few examples for shocking victories by the end.
When you're done reading, be sure to enter our own predict the Oscars content right here for a chance to win a cool $300!
———–
1) Best Picture
While I do think this year’s big race could go either way, my money is still on ROMA to win. It’s sweeping, beautifully done on every front and Cuaron proves why he’s one of the best of the modern age. The only thing stopping it is the fact people in the industry seem to have it out for Netflix, but I think if any movie is to change their minds, it’s this one. If not, then it seems like, sadly, GREEN BOOK is the safe choice, which is bananas considering A STAR IS BORN was once the odds-on favorite. But maybe the Cooper directing exclusion could’ve caused a wave of support a la ARGO in 2013?
2) Best Director:
If Cuaron doesn’t win this my mouth would fall to the floor and not recover for several days. No one else has been dominating the conversation other than him, with only Spike Lee in there as a sort of "let’s-make-up-for-years-of-ignoring-you" buzz. I don’t think the case for Lee is all that strong, especially because in the case of direction, Cuaron truly has no equal this year. I bow down to his greatness.
3) Best Actor
Last session I said this race was, at the time, down to Rami Malek and Christian Bale, but with a BAFTA win it seems more and more likely Malek will win for his impersonation of Freddie Mercury, enhanced with big false teeth. Not only do I think Bale is more deserving, but I think Cooper is perhaps more deserving than both. But people love BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY, and Malek seems to be a driving reason why.
4) Best Actress
Gaga, like all the other awards A STAR IS BORN was once a lock to win, has become third fiddle here. Not only will this be Glenn Close’s night after half a dozen nominations and no win, but if anyone does beat her, it seems likely to be Olivia Colman for THE FAVOURITE.
5) Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, like Cuaron for directing awards, has been the lone winner across most of the awards ceremonies, and the Oscars seem to be another lock. While there may be a contingency of fans for Grant (*raises hand*), Ali’s presence in BOOK is undeniable, and I really don’t see any reason to think he would lose the night out of the blue.
6) Best Supporting Actress
Regina King winning here is a pretty safe bet. Her performance is loved, and IF BEALE STREET didn’t quite get the number of nominations many who loved it had hoped. As a result, that has propelled the case for a King victory even more. Sure, THE FAVOURITE has its fans, but who would be the winner among the two nominees here? Emma Stone or Rachel Weisz? Would voters be split?* No matter. King is the solid frontrunner.
* The right answer is Weisz, by the way
7) Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
This race was thrown into a bit of storm last week when frontrunners BLACKKKLANSMAN and BEALE STREET lost the WGA to CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? leading pundits to switch up their picks. WGA has a good track record of selecting the winner, but that could be different this year. There’s a lot of love for BLACKKKLANSMAN, but with CYEFM winning is that proof the love isn’t as strong as we thought? The writing branch of the Oscars is much smaller than the WGA, so my money is still on BLACKKKLANSMAN to win as the members of the Academy look to bestow at least one Oscar on Spike Lee for the evening.
8) Writing (Original Screenplay)
Like Adapted, this award was tossed into chaos after EIGHTH GRADE, which isn’t even nominated here, won the WGA for Best Original Screenplay. Now with the predictor out the window, it’s anyone’s game. With that in mind, my money is still on THE FAVOURITE, with the chance of a steal by GREEN BOOK. Do I want the mediocre piece of writing to steal the prize away from the former? No. I would throw my chips at the screen. But silly people seem to think GREEN BOOK is worthy of a writing Oscar, and that idea can easily seep into people’s minds and make them do dumb things. But, hey, maybe ROMA trounces them both if the movie sweeps other categories too.
9) Animated Feature Film
What was once the year of Pixar has turned into the year of the spider in the most perfect turn of events yet. Not only is SPIDER-VERSE being hailed as the best animated movie of the year, but it’s also considered one of the best movies of the year, period. It’s strange to imagine that in a year with a great Pixar movie that it could be wiped out of the race so easily by a movie like SPIDER-VERSE, but it’s happened, and now at least one superhero movie is likely to walk away with gold come Sunday.
*I won't dig too deep into these other awards, but here are my predictions for the tech categories and the documentary/short films:*
10) Production Design
11) Cinematography
12) Foreign Language Film
13) Visual Effects
14) Costume Design
15) Best Original Score
16) Best Original Song
17) Film Editing
18) Makeup and Hairstyling
19) Sound Editing
20) Sound Mixing
[SEE MORE]
21) Documentary Feature
22) Documentary Short Subject
23) Short Film (Animated)
24) Short Film (Live Action)
———-
So, there you have, there are the predictions and I'm sticking to them. There have been a lot of surprises, but I'm very surprised about the batch of movies that managed to stay in the game this long. Even though I always knew BLACK PANTHER would get a spot, I still can't believe I was right. Then there's BOHEMIAN, a movie I thought was done once the reviews came in, but clearly, the box office helped keep the movie in mind and give the Oscar voters a biopic to support. Same goes for VICE, but instead of box office, the talent in front of and behind the camera can be credited for keeping it afloat. Well, no matter what, this was a weird year, and it all comes to an end this Sunday, so stay tuned and keep to Twitter to find our own Paul Shirey live-tweeting the awards. There will no doubt be some alcohol involved, so that should be fun.
Again, be sure to enter our own predict the Oscars content right here for a chance to win that sweet, sweet $300!