Well, folks, when it comes to awards season, we’re in the home stretch. We’re in the final round, the fourth quarter or whatever other sports euphemism you want to use, but the point is we’re almost done. This move towards the finish line came last week when the nominations for the 91st Academy Awards were announced, giving the nominees a sense of triumph and leaving the rest to the confines of snub lists far and wide. With that in mind, it's time to get into another round of our Oscar predictions – but whereas the last two were about what movies were likely to get nominated for what, on top of the most likely to win, this is all about the winners, baby.
A lot has happened since the last time we did this dance, including ceremonies for the Golden Globes, Producer’s Guild of America, Critics’ Choice Awards and, as of last Sunday, the Screen Actor’s Guild Awards. There have been some surprise winners to come out of this bunch, with some movies rocketing up to the front of the pack and others experiencing some harsh and occasionally unexpected defeat. Two of the biggest winners? ROMA and GREEN BOOK for sure. The latter pulled off surprise wins for Best Picture (Drama) at the Golden Globes, and yet another shocker for Best Film at the PGA’s – two strong signifiers it has what it takes to win the big prize at the Oscars, which is bananas considering this movie is the vanilla ice cream of the whole pack. Still, ROMA has also won its fair share of prizes, taking home most of the Best Picture prizes across the critic awards, including the Critics’ Choice, and word is there’s a ton of support around the movie, especially since Netflix is spending all that STRANGER THINGS money on the campaign. Marvel’s BLACK PANTHER also shook things up a tad on Sunday winning the Best Ensemble prize at SAG, a major factor that proves the acting branch – the largest branch of the Academy – has a ton of love for the movie. Does that mean PANTHER poses a Best Picture threat against the last two? Probably not. But still, an interesting, major win for the comic book movie.
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Of course, for every winner or two, there are many more losers, and one of the most surprising is the poor performance of A STAR IS BORN. Once thought (even by me) to breeze through the awards thanks to terrific reviews and big box office, the movie has failed to win any major awards – outside of prizes for Best Original Song. Even star Lady Gaga, once a shoo-in for Best Actress has found herself trumped by Glenn Close for THE WIFE. The two tied at the Critics’ Choice, but Close won the night again with SAG, putting her square in the lead to win. On top of those losses came a big hit with the Oscar nominations when Bradley Cooper failed to secure a nomination for Best Director. That means winning Best Picture has become a long shot, as only a handful of movies have won the big prize without a Best Director nomination.
There are some other heated races too, like what seems to be Christian Bale v. Rami Malek for Best Actor, and well, that seems to be about it for the major races, actually. Many other prizes seem to have clear frontrunners, even if a surprise or two should be expected. We will get into it more below, so let’s start with the big prize as always – Best Picture.
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Best Picture
I’ve covered this a bit above, but what seemed like a solid path for A STAR IS BORN has become a split road with both GREEN BOOK and ROMA on either side. GREEN BOOK has won the more major, established prizes, but ROMA has the love and fandom – especially considering the controversy that has surrounded BOOK and the people who made it. Putting politics aside (which given the Oscars is probably futile), my money says to bet on ROMA. Not only is it the better movie of the two, but it also has other prizes to back itself up. It will likely win Director (Alfonso Cuaron), as no one else but him seems to even be a factor, and even BOOK’s Peter Farrelly isn’t nominated. Then there are tech awards, like cinematography and sound awards in the mix – so we could see some love for the movie across the branches. It’s a smart choice for Best Picture as it’s truly one of the best of the year, and it would be the first time a foreign language movie to win Best Picture, which is a big campaign point.
BEST DIRECTOR
Like I said above, this is 100 percent going to Alfonso Cuaron. He did too great a job with ROMA, and it's his blood, sweat, and tears that gave the movie its scope and heart. He’s earned it for this movie, probably more so than he did for GRAVITY. The only competition that stands in his way with Cooper and Farrelly gone is – maybe – Spike Lee for BLACKKKLANSMAN. This is his first nomination over the course of his entire career (despite being given an honorary Oscar recently), and it's not above the Academy to award someone an overdue prize. Barring that, the path is wide open for Cuaron to breeze through.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper was once atop this list for his work as the tortured, alcoholic rock star Jackson Maine, but at this point, it seems he has a better chance of doing HANGOVER 4 (THE HANG-GINNING) than winning Best Actor. Voters have rallied around Bale for his work as Dick Cheney in VICE and Malek for his as Freddie Mercury in BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY. As for who will win between these two, it could go either way. Given his win at SAG, my money is on Malek, especially given the overall love the movie has in the industry, coming out of thin air to land some major nominations and wins. But it could also be Bale, who has won before and has the clout to stay in Oscar voters' brains. Could go either way, but I think Malek will walk away the champion…of the world.
Best Actress
Once thought to be another solid win for A STAR IS BORN, Lady Gaga has suddenly and quickly fallen out of the top ranks in favor of Glenn Close for THE WIFE. Having been nominated a half dozen times in the past and never winning, this is shaping to be another year where the Academy makes up for past injustices and gives an industry vet their due.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali has been winning every award around for his work here, and I don’t see that changing come Oscar time. Thank you, next.
Best Supporting Actress
Like Mahershala, Regina King has been winning everything under the sun for her work in IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK, and I would say it’s a lock except for one factor: she wasn’t even nominated at the SAG Awards. Perhaps it was just a close race she came out the wrong side of, but perhaps it’s not a good sign for her victory. Emily Blunt ended up with a surprise win at SAG instead, without an Oscar nomination, further complicating things. Despite all this, I think King is the one to beat despite the SAG hiccup. The race has freed up ever so slightly for other nominees to pull off a surprise win, but I think the odds of that happening are slim. Bet on King for the win at this point.
Best Original Screenplay
While its Golden Globes win may give it some kind of clout, I think GREEN BOOK’s chances of winning are outshined by that of THE FAVOURITE. I’ve said in the past that if this movie wins anything it would be for this (and probably costumes). The dialogue is whip-smart and three stellar, leading characters were crafted in what is my personal pick for the best script of the year. Cuaron could also win for ROMA should that movie sweep other categories, but I feel the tech angles and the direction are the movie’s stronger suit, with FAVOURITE surpassing in the script department. But who knows, should hell freeze over GREEN BOOK could also pull out a soul-defeating win.
Best Adapted Screenplay
This race has really come down to two possible winners – BLACKKKLANSMAN and IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK. While the former balances humor and pathos, the latter is an emotional, gut-wrenching tale lovingly adapted by director Barry Jenkins. This one is more up in the air for me than others, and my gut says to go for BLACKKKLANSMAN. My main reasoning for this is the fact that the Academy as a whole seems to be favoring that movie over BEALE STREET, which didn’t land awards for Director or Picture – two awards it was expected to nab earlier in the race. For that reason, it could rally voters around BEALE who feel it was robbed, but I’m not sure that fervor is enough to top BLACKKKLANSMAN.
Best Animated Feature
Talk about a shocker, folks. In a year when Pixar released a movie (INCREDIBLES 2) that was both huge and critically beloved, and totally worthy of a Best Animated Feature Oscar, in swings Spider-Man to steal all the thunder. The movie is one of the best-reviewed and most beloved of the year and has been winning award after award. I was cocky myself in thinking INCREDIBLES 2 had this locked up, but who would’ve guessed SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE would be so…amazing. On that note, I think SPIDER-VERSE has attained the clout and fandom to win this thing, which is pretty damn spectacular.
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We're almost there folks, so now it's all about what movies have what it takes to stay on top or worm their ways into the hearts and minds of Oscar voters/ Where do you think the race stands now that the nominations have been announced? Do you think ROMA has it all the way, or could BLACK PANTHER run away with a surprise win for Best Picture? Anything is possible!