Last Updated on August 2, 2021
The multiplexes are about to open their doors for another summer jammed with a relentless onslaught of expensive entertainment, all competing for the most attention and the biggest sacks of money.
While some choices seem obvious, it's never easy to estimate what exactly will connect with moviegoers, and what will get overlooked (or outright rejected) by audiences. Advanced buzz, repeat viewings and word-of-mouth business all factor heavily into which releases end up filling their vaults more than others, but summer is still always a difficult season to forecast.
After a series of computations using a complicated algorithm (okay, guessing), here are our predictions for this summer's domestic box office winners.
Joss Whedon assembled Marvel's heavy hitters for a second villain-smashing adventure, which is destined to join the THE AVENGERS as a monumental box office blockbuster. Word so far is that the sequel is bigger but perhaps not quite as satisfying as the first time the superheroes gathered, so even though its opening weekend could set a new record by surpassing the original's debut, it may not have the same amount of (super)power to ultimately propel it to the same high finish.
Prediction: $600 million
2. MINIONS
DESPICABLE ME 2 pulled in $368 million in 2013, and although Steve Carrel's benign baddie Gru was the primary focus of the first two movies, his chittering pill-shaped cohorts have become the breakout stars with countless toys and almost 29 million Facebook fans. Seems like the beloved henchmen don't even need an evil mastermind to serve in their spinoff movie, but they'll have one in Sandra Bullock.
Prediction: $320 million
It's been 14 years since John Hammond's genetically resurrected dinosaurs last terrorized the big screen, and now they roam the earth again (or at least a new theme park) with recently crowned A-list hero Chris Pratt keeping them in check. And while the mighty scaled beasts will undoubtedly enter cinemas with great roar and rumble, it may not be enough to tromp on those little yellow Minions.
Prediction: $285 million
4. INSIDE OUT
None of Pixar's releases have come close to TOY STORY 3's incredible $415 million haul, but their new original feature does have director Pete Docter of UP and MONSTERS, INC. behind it. INSIDE OUT may not rise to the heights of Carl Fredericksen's balloon-powered home, but thanks to its colorful emotions and approachable concept, it should go on to become one of the studio's and the summer's bigger hits.
Prediction: $270 million
5. MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – ROGUE NATION
Even with a late summer release, Tom Cruise's fifth turn as secret agent Ethan Hunt should pack enough firepower to approach GHOST PROTOCOL's domestic finish. His underperforming EDGE OF TOMORROW and inclusion in a recent scathing documentary aren't likely to bother audiences who just want to witness the reliable superstar chasing enemy operatives and hanging from ridiculous heights.
Prediction: $200 million
6. ANT-MAN
Despite a lack of mainstream recognition and some behind-the-scenes controversy, Marvel's diminutive new screen hero should still pack in the crowds. If last summer demonstrated anything, it's that their brand and cool visuals can attract moviegoers who've never heard of the characters (although it certainly helps if they're bizarre yet engaging creations like a walking tree and a talking raccoon), and an amiable leading man like Paul Rudd definitely can't hurt.
Prediction: $190 million
7. TED 2
Seth MacFarlane got gunned down with last summer's dud A MILLION WAYS TO DIE IN THE WEST, but the return of his fuzzy foul-mouthed incarnation seems hard to resist for fans of the original. The second adventure of stuffed bear and Boston thunder-buddy Mark Wahlberg probably won't find the first TED's surprise success, but summer does seem like the right time this kind of bad behavior.
Prediction: $180 million
8. SPY
Melissa McCarthy didn't have a hit with last summer's TAMMY, but her fortune should change after reuniting with Paul Feig, who directed her in smashes THE HEAT and BRIDESMAIDS. While her CIA agent is the focus of this action-comedy, she'll be assisted by a game cast that includes Jude Law, Rose Byrne and Jason Statham. Feels like the potential summer breakout.
Prediction: $170 million
The idea of Tom Hardy stepping into the boots of Mel Gibson's post-apocalyptic wanderer may give some a sour taste, but director George Miller's glorious fuel-injected lunacy practically demands attention. With FURY ROAD, Max Rockatansky (along with fellow wasteland warrior Charlize Theron) seems ready for a mainstream success three decades beyond Thunderdome.
Prediction: $160 million
Arnold Schwarzenegger has flopped hard at the box office since leaving politics, and early reaction to his latest cyborg effort has been lukewarm. Still, even the dizzying time-twists and a lousy title seem unlikely to overcome the franchise familiarity for anyone who associates Arnie and James Cameron's two classic sci-fi films. A prime position on July 4th weekend should also help nudge it into the summer's Top 10.
Prediction: $150 million
WILD CARDS
FANTASTIC FOUR – The new version of Marvel's famous family looks like a dour affair, but that direction could end up being a shrewd counterbalance to Marvel Studios' more vibrant and spirited offerings.
PIXELS – Outside of his animated HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA, Adam Sandler hasn't exactly burned up the box office in the past few years. It's possible this movie's sky-high concept and nostalgia for familiar 80s videogame characters will change that.
SAN ANDREAS – Dwayne Johnson is often the best part of an ensemble, but the performance of his solo movies hasn't been nearly as muscular as the man himself. Will the addition of spectacular mass-scale catastrophe be the answer?
VACATION – Another Griswold family takes over for a new disastrous holiday, and the R-rated road trip could have enough raunchy laughs to let it coast to a WE'RE THE MILLERS sized success.
TOMORROWLAND – Director Brad Bird's original sci-fi adventure looks intriguing, but can it connect with wider audiences in a summer of superheroes, spies, dinosaurs and destruction?
Who do you think will reign supreme at the box office this summer? Give us your predictions below! And check out our 2015 Summer Preview Video if you need refreshing!
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