Joker set to lead second weekend over newcomers with estimated $40+ million

Last Updated on August 2, 2021

Despite all the controversy (or perhaps thanks to it), Warner Bros.' JOKER smashed the opening weekend record for October by posting a whopping $96 million, and over $200 million globally. For good and bad, people are still talking about Todd Phillips’ realistic take on one of the most iconic villains in literature (starring Joaquin Phoenix), and going into its second weekend at the box office it should have no problem maintaining that hype. That means we can expect a great second weekend for the comic book movie as it goes up against newcomers like the animated THE ADDAMS FAMILY and GEMINI MAN starring Will Smith.

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Going into the weekend the box office projections are placing JOKER on track to take in another $40+ million, dropping an expected 50%-60%. This drop is akin to both last year’s October blockbuster, VENOM – which dropped 56% for a second-weekend #1 spot of $35 million – and fellow R-rated comic book flick, LOGAN, which dropped the same percentage for a $38 million frame.

Benefitting JOKER, beyond typical comic book hype, are the solid reviews, standing at a 68% “Certified Fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes (because CF goes that low, I guess?) and a terrific 90% audience score. On top of that, there’s purely the discussion element. For better or worse the movie has become one of the most-talked-about movies of the year, and perhaps the FOMO is real enough to keep driving audiences to the theater as the movie climbs towards and beyond $200 million domestically.

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As for the competition, we have two movies competing for different demographics in the family-friendly ADDAMS FAMILY and the action flick GEMINI MAN from director Ang Lee. The former is looking to pull in better numbers than the recent ABOMINABLE, with predictions at around $25-$30 million. While reviews are not posted yet (not a great sign), the name brand should inspire parents to introduce their kids to the kooky family, but perhaps not of they just took their kids to ABOMINABLE…or decide to stay home and watch TOY STORY 4.

When it comes to GEMINI MAN, there used to be a time when throwing a new Will Smith blockbuster into the mix could’ve made for a bad time for a repeat like JOKER, but the star hasn’t been the heavy hitter he was once – outside of branded movies like Disney’s ALADDIN and DC’s SUICIDE SQUAD. Even with two of him in the movie he can’t quite command the numbers, especially when talk of the movie is so bad (30% on RT, so far). With that in mind, the movie will be shooting for third, with an estimated $20-$25 million in the cards.

None of this should come as any surprise to anyone keeping up with the trends of Hollywood. Comic book movies, whether they be big and colorful like AVENGERS or stark dramas like JOKER, are ruling the box office over normally safe bets like animated movies and the newest from tested movie stars. They dominate the conversations and demand to be seen on the big screen, so it's no shock the Clown Prince of Crime will remain king for at least one more weekend.