Maybe it's a good thing that Christopher Nolan's TENET stood its ground. As many major releases were pulled or rescheduled as theaters shuttered in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Warner Bros. has kept TENET planted on its July 17 release date. It was looking dire that theaters wouldn't be open in time for Warner Bros. to justify maintaining the $200 million film's release date but after Cinemark unveiled its opening plan set to begin June 19, NATO (National Association of Theatre Owners) now expects 90% of the global theatrical marketplace to be open by mid-July.
The figure comes courtesy of the "Business Insider", which cites a representative of NATO. The National Association of Theatre Owners is an organization that represents movie theaters across America but what remains unclear is what the other 10% might represent. The hope is that 10% does not represent major theaters in cities such as Los Angeles, New York City, San Francisco or Chicago because these are the cities that drive much of the box office in the States. Warner Bros. has stated that they need at least 80% of the theaters in the U.S. to be open for it to make financial sense to release TENET in July and not delay the film and those major cities need to be in that equation as well.
The other caveat here is, even if enough theaters do open in time, there is the issue of capacity. Theaters will be operating at limited capacity, most likely 50% or less than what they normally hold. This will also hurt box office potential for TENET, although I suspect there will be a lot more showings given there will be no competition in the marketplace. TENET could be more of a slow burn with legs in the weeks after its release rather than a hit right out of the gate. Is that good enough for Warner Bros.? Would that give them the return on investment they desire?
Cinemark CEO Mark Zoradi mentioned during his call about the reopening of their theater chain that he has been in frequent talks with Warner Bros. and they're optimistic about keeping the original date. Zoradi expected an announcement, either way, very soon considering before you know it the film will be a month away from its release. Warner Bros. has to decide to put more marketing spend into its current date or a new one. There is whispering out there that the studio will delay the film and the issue is where on the calendar could they release it? Warner Bros. is playing a high-risk game of chicken with TENET, no doubt led by Christopher Nolan who wants his film to be the movie that gets out butts back in the seats in the wake of this global pandemic. NATO's new numbers are very encouraging and if major cities fall in that 90% of theaters that will be open by mid-July, it could be a game that Nolan and Warner Bros. will win in the end.
Do YOU think TENET will keep its date? Will enough theaters in the major cities be open in time?