M. Night Shyamalan had his own real-life twist last year with quite the comeback in the form of SPLIT, his small thriller starring James McAvoy that was a secret sequel to UNBREAKABLE. Now the third and final entry in the series – GLASS – is hoping to keep the good times rolling for the director, and based on early tracking the movie is indeed looking to shatter the box office with a 4-day MLK weekend between $50-75 million.
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The tracking reports began to surface yesterday, with the more optimistic reports (via Variety, Deadline) saying the movie will hit on the higher end of the $70 million range, with more conservative estimates believing the threequel will land closer to $50 million, more in line with the SPLIT’s $40 million opening. Even if it does come in at the lowest end of these expectations, that would still give it the second-largest MLK opening ever behind Clint Eastwood’s AMERICAN SNIPER ($107 million), ahead of the Kevin Hart comedy RIDE ALONG ($48 million).
As reported by Deadline, one area of tracking that’s going extremely well for the movie is total unaided awareness, a survey category wherein people being polled mention the movie as one they want to see without having first been prompted about it. This means GLASS is a movie they know about, have tucked the epic trailers in the back of their minds, and are ready to shell out those dollars come the release. That TUA is currently higher than other thriller/horror movies like GET OUT and SPLIT, and as a “first choice” is higher than THE NUN, THE CONJURING 2, GET OUT and just under LOGAN – all movies that went on to make just at or over $100 million at the box office.
SPLIT was an unexpected smash hit for Blumhouse at the start of 2017. Shyamalan didn’t have the best track record at the time, but the movie opened to large numbers thanks to rave reviews and an unmissable McAvoy performance, going to almost $280 million worldwide, and all off a $10 million budget. Even though this sequel in undeniably bigger and adds Samuel L. Jackson and Bruce Willis, the budget is still a modest $20 million, meaning even the lowest of openings will make this an easy win for Blumhouse and Universal. This can’t can’t come too soon, as MORTAL ENGINES and WELCOME TO MARWEN are expected to lose the latter studio between $150-200 million this holiday season.
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In short, GLASS is looking to be yet another hit under Shyamalan’s belt as he leaves his trail of past flops behind him. I couldn’t be happier about this, because with SPLIT (and to a lesser degree, THE VISIT) he proved he still has what it takes to unnerve and entice us, and GLASS looks pretty terrific on its own. The movie lands in a few weeks, and the reviews a little before then, so be sure to stay tuned for a lot of GLASS coverage in the new year.
GLASS hits theaters January 18, 2019.