SATURDAY UPDATE: Now that the Black Friday numbers are in, some of the box office estimates from Deadline are being revised downward somewhat. Encanto is now slated for a $39-42 million five-day opening, with House of Gucci expected to take in $22 million. Ghostbusters: Afterlife is set for a second place finish with $36.3 million over the five day holiday weekend. Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza is also bringing in strong numbers in its limited release taking in $336k on only four screens.
ORIGINAL POST: Box office kicked off early this week with Tuesday night previews and full launches on Wednesday with three new wide releases. There’s a little something for everyone in the marketplace currently and so far, business is generally solid.
Disney’s Encanto opened to $7.5 million on Wednesday which shows that families are beginning to head to the multiplex again but this isn’t one of the best starts for one of their films over the Thanksgiving frame. The first day is lower than one of their lower-grossing titles over this particular weekend, The Good Dinosaur. That film grossed $9.76 million on its first Wednesday over the Thanksgiving holiday and ended up with a three-day opening of $39.1 million and a five-day holiday figure of $55.4 million.
On Thanksgiving, Encanto took in $5.8 million and while that is down from its $7.5 million start on Wednesday, that was to be expected because Thanksgiving day tends to be the slowest day of the holiday weekend since families are gathered around the dinner table rather than going to the movies. Black Friday is usually a robust day at the movies but we will need to wait and see if it’s affected by the pandemic at all and then the weekend, in general, should also be solid overall. So far, Encanto has taken in $13.3 million to date and the outlook, per “Deadline“, is a $32.9 million three-day opening and $46.6 million over five days. This can all change depending on the weekend rush and if more word of mouth spreads. Encanto already has an “A” CinemaScore from opening day audiences and reviews are strong at 92% fresh. We may need to give this one time to find its audience over the weekend. According to reports, Encanto carries a $120 million budget.
House of Gucci is proving that the elusive adult audience, that has been more reluctant to head out to the movies during the pandemic, will come out for Lady Gaga and a true tale of murder and greed. House of Gucci grossed $4.2 million on opening day which is almost just as much as Ridley Scott’s last film, The Last Duel, made over its entire opening weekend ($4.75 million). Critics are mixed on House of Gucci (barely hanging on fresh at 60% as of this writing) but the audience score shows moviegoers are liking it a lot more (currently 88% audience score and a “B+” CinemaScore). So why is this adult-driven film working while others haven’t during the pandemic? I credit star power. Lady Gaga, Al Pacino, Adam Driver, Jared Leto, and Jeremy Irons are all either Oscar winners or nominees and they have all done their part, particularly Lady Gaga, to promote the film to the masses. The true story is also intriguing enough to entice moviegoers and the trailers and TV spots have done a good job selling its visual palette of wealth, excess, and murder.
On Thanksgiving Day proper, House of Gucci grossed $3.4 million and that’s a solid hold as business was expected to slow down on Turkey Day. So far, House of Gucci has grossed $7.5 million to date and is expected to gross $15.4 million over three days and $23 million over five. Again, this all can change depending on the Black Friday and weekend bump. House of Gucci reportedly cost $75 million to make but this film could be a significant international player due to its cast so Ridley Scott may redeem himself with this one after the failure of The Last Duel.
Faring not as well on its Wednesday debut was Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City. The latest adaptation of the video game franchise grossed $2.5 million on its opening day and out of all of the newer releases, I think this one is going to find it tough to have solid legs over the remainder of the weekend. Reviews were poor (26% rotten as of this writing) and its “C+” CinemaScore isn’t all that encouraging for a genre film. To be fair, I didn’t see much of a push for this film until this week so maybe the marketing muscle just wasn’t there.
On Thanksgiving Day, Resident Evil grossed a mere $1 million but no one was expecting the film to be one of the top choices on the family-centric holiday. Working in the movie’s favor is that the budget is low at $25 million (a total I could see it concluding with domestically, or even a tad short) so it just needs a little international bump to be considered profitable which leads to potential sequel talks. As of now, Resident Evil has grossed $3.5 million to date. A three-day gross of $4.58 million is expected with a possible $8 million over five days. To be fair, the $8 million figure is what Sony was reportedly expecting so I think they know what they had here.
Last weekend’s significant holdover is Ghostbusters: Afterlife which is competing with Encanto for the family audience and is holding its own against the competition. Ghostbusters took in $5.4 million on Wednesday which was up 16% from the day before. What’s even more impressive? Afterlife pretty much matched its Wednesday figure on Thanksgiving Day with a gross of $5.3 million (down only 2%). This is the only film to not see a real dip on the holiday and shows that this movie is working because it’s a true family affair for the young, the old, and the in-between. Nostalgia sells and fans are eating this one up as the franchise has truly revived itself with this entry. To date, Ghostbusters: Afterlife has grossed $63.3 million to date and that’s all on a $75 million budget.
Check back through the weekend as we update you on the Thanksgiving holiday box office.