The numbers for the weekend have begun pouring in and with $17 million made on Thursday previews rolled into Friday’s total take of around $55 million, it looks like the opening weekend for the highly anticipated Avatar: The Way of Water is going to come in slightly below its projections with around $150 million. Leading into this week, projections were all over the place from $160 million up to $200 million, which is why I felt safe splitting the difference in my predictions. Given the film’s runtime (a healthy 3 hours and 12 minutes) I figured that would slow down the opening weekend a bit. With the holidays fast approaching, I’m not sure how many people were mentally (and bladderly, to make up a word) prepared for it!
The good news for this one is that it will most definitely have legs at the box office. It is a visual treat that is something that can only be experienced on the big screen. This isn’t something like The Fabelmans that can be a nice night on the couch with a great movie. This is a massive 3D epic that demands you seek out the biggest screen possible. And that is a big reason this one will have legs, some walk up business may be realizing the best seats for this one are completely sold out, so instead of breaking their necks looking up at the screen, they are opting to wait a week or two and see it when the conditions are just right for the best possible movie going experience.
Again, keep in mind that the original Avatar opened with just $77 million and legged out to nearly $3 Billion worldwide and the title of Highest Grossing Movie Ever Made. I don’t think Way of Water will get to that level, but it is going to be a profitable endeavor and with the third film already in the can and two more sequels planned, the Avatar universe is going to be just fine.
Second and third place appear to be a snowball fight between Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Violent Night. Right now forecasts have the Panther slightly ahead with a $1.7 million Friday and a $6 million weekend while Santa’s Violent Night had a $1.5 million Friday and an estimated $5.3 million weekend. Walk up business for the R rated romp should still be a big factor in this weekend’s numbers as more people will want to see a nice Christmas film before the holiday is over.
Fourth place belongs to Strange World with an estimated $2.7 million weekend while The Menu continues to entice viewers, having never fallen out of the top five since it was released exactly a month ago. And rightfully so, the movie is one of the best of the year. Don’t just take my word for it, check out what our Editor in Chief Chris Bumbray had to say about it in his 9/10 review.
Have you made it out to theaters yet to see Avatar: The Way of Water? Or are you waiting for the initial rush to die down before checking it out? (Or are simply not interested at all?) Let us know in the comments and don’t forget to check back tomorrow when we have our full rundown of this weekend’s box office.