Box Office Predictions: Wonka kicks off the Holiday Movie Season

This year has seen some big name movies move off the schedule in the wake of the Writers Guild and SAG-Aftra strikes. This has made theater owners fearful of the Holiday movie season with a lack of a film that will keep audiences coming back for multiple viewings. This is the time of year where prestige films vying for Oscar Glory mix with big budget tentpole blockbusters to take advantage of the fact that after two or three days spent with relatives you only see once a year, you need a nice two to three hour activity that requires no talking!

After The Boy and the Heron took in record breaking numbers for its studio last week, at $13 million, this week sees the first true big name Holiday release with a prequel to a classic children’s film that was released over 52 years ago. Despite WIlly Wonka and the Chocolate Factory grossing just $4 million during its original release, it has endured and become one of the most beloved films of all time. So, in a world filed with remakes and sequels, what do you do? You create a prequel that no one was really asking for. But here is the dirty little secret: according to the critics, including our own Chris Bumbray who gave it a 7/10, the movie is actually… good!

I guess when you hire Paul King to direct your movie after bringing Paddington the bear to life so beautifully in two films, you can expect a certain bit of magic in the filmmaking. While those films don’t offer a great comparison for this films box office potential (Paddington opened with $18.9 million on its way to a $76.2 million domestic finish, while taking in $282.4 million worldwide. Paddington 2 opened with just $11 million on its way to a $40.9 million domestic take with a $227.3 million worldwide total), the best comparison I can think of for this movie would be 2017’s The Greatest Showman. While that films domestic opening was a lackluster $8.8 million, word of mouth spread and spread, keeping the film in the top ten for 15 weeks until it finished its domestic run with $174.3 million ($434.9 million worldwide) for an insane 21.8 times its opening!

Right now tracking has Wonka hitting around $40 million, far better than the $8 million of Greatest Showman, while I think word of mouth and the lack of a true fun for all ages film in the marketplace will help this one over-perform and get to at the very least $45 million. If I am being honest, I could see this one hit $50 million, it just has that feeling of when The Super Mario Bros. Movie hit earlier this year and blew past all expectations. But the true measure of the film will be its longevity, and, like The Greatest Showman in 2017, I think Wonka has a pathway to turn into one of, if not THE, biggest hit of the holiday season. Keep in mind, it is a prequel, and just this past month we have seen the power of a prequel at the box office (The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes).

The remainder of the top five become a bit harder to predict. Last weeks champ The Boy and the Heron was likely a front loaded experience and will likely have a steep decline landing in the fourth place spot with around $4.5 million (although don’t cry for this Golden Globe Nominated film, as during the week it officially became Hayao Miyazaki’s highest grossing film ever at the domestic box office). Spot two will be a fight between the aforementioned prequel The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes and Godzilla Minus One as both films have seen tremendous word of mouth propelling them to solid numbers. It seems audiences have genuinely embraced the Japanese language Godzilla and that may give it the edge this weekend with around $6 million in receipts while Hunger Games will land around $5 million. 

That leaves spot five open. Will those lovable Trolls who Band Together continue their solid run in the top five or will the new faith based release Christmas with The Chosen: Holy Night sneak up and land that fifth place spot. The faith based community are not ones to slept on, especially when just two years ago Fathom Events released Christmas with The Chosen: The Messengers on 1700 screens to a solid $4.2 million debut, landing the film a fourth place opening weekend. With that said, I think Christmas with The Chosen: Holy Night will take that fifth spot with around $4 million in receipts.

The remainder of the top ten will see your holdover titles (which by the way, everyone who has yet to see The Holdovers in theaters, needs to go see it! It was just nominated for a ton of awards and is a perfect winter time film with equal parts hilarity and heart). You can expect films like Wish and Napoleon to continue their slides into obscurity while Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé will see another tremendous slide before it leaves the top ten altogether. A far cry from the nine weeks Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour spent in the top ten. While the recent onslaught of Award recognition for Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things should help the Emma Stone starring film land in the top ten as it continues its slow roll out during awards season. You can check out Chris Bumbray’s 9/10 review here.

Will you be checking out Wonka this weekend? If so, let us know in the comments and don’t forget to check back on Saturday when we have a brief update on where the box office numbers are heading. 

TOP FIVE PREDICTIONS

1. Wonka– $45 Million
2. Godzilla Minus One– $6 Million
3. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes– $5 Million
4. The Boy and the Heron– $4.5 Million
5. Christmas with The Chosen: Holy Night– $4 Million