Box Office Predictions: Will bad buzz hurt Joker: Folie à Deux’s opening weekend?

A few months ago, I would have predicted that Joker: Folie à Deux would be one of the year’s biggest movies. Yet, in the weeks since it made a rather anticlimactic debut at the Venice Film Festival, where many critics met it with a collective shrug, the word-of-mouth on the film has been tepid at best. Compare that to the original Joker, which came out on the same weekend back in 2019 and was a cultural phenomenon, with it being the controversial water-cooler movie everyone HAD to see. It opened with a massive $96 million, which is terrific for an R-rated movie, on its way to a $336 million domestic gross and over a billion bucks at the worldwide box office.

Conversely, the sequel is only tracking to open in the $50-60 million range, which is troubling for a film with a reported $200 million budget. We saw the movie (read our review here or watch it embedded below); indeed, it is a disappointingly anticlimactic follow-up. It doesn’t deliver the fireworks one would anticipate from the pairing of Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga as Joker and Harley Quinn. 

As such, I think the box office gurus are right and that the movie will open smack dab in the middle of their expectations, around $55 million. Word-of-mouth will not be good, and it seems unlikely this will receive the same kind of awards buzz the original did, so WB will have to bank on overseas grosses to break even.

The Wild Robot should have no trouble in second place, with it looking to make about $20 million this weekend. Given the A CinemaScore, word of mouth should be excellent for this well-reviewed animated flick. And, despite getting a digital release next Tuesday, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice should manage a third-place finish, with it looking like it’ll make about $10 million. Other semi-wide releases this weekend include Lionsgate’s long-delayed White Bird, which is related to their breakout hit, Wonder, while Mel Gibson and Mason Thames headline Monster Summer (see our interview here). It remains to be seen if either will creep into the top five, but I’m expecting Transformers One in fourth place with about $6 million, while Speak No Evil should be in fifth with about $3 million.

Our predictions:

1. Joker: Folie à Deux: $55 million
2. The Wild Robot: $20 million
3. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice: $10 million
4. Transformers One: $6 million
5. Speak No Evil: $3 million

Do you think Joker: Folie à Deux will open better than expected? Let us know in the comments!