Box Office Predictions: Wicked to easily take number 1; Gladiator 2 should perform well

Hollywood hopes we’re on the eve of another Barbenheimer, with all eyes on the weekend box office to see if Glicked becomes a thing. Glicked, of course, refers to Gladiator II and Wicked, with the hope being that a movie mad public will make a double bill of these movies go viral. I’m not so sure, with both movies being over 2.5 hours long and a pretty full meal as far as films go. The charm of Barbenheimer was that both movies were so different, with Barbie light and airy compared to Oppenheimer’s massive scale. Both Wicked and Gladiator are epics. They also haven’t been receiving the kinds of raves Barbie and Oppenheimer did, with Gladiator II’s Rotten Tomatoes score a fair 73%. By comparison, Wicked has it beat with a strong 91%.

For me, this weekend’s box office winner is a no-brainer, with Wicked bound to open to at least $100 million. I’m predicting a $120 million start based on both the reputation of the musical, and the fact that it has a ton of crossover appeal for both families, date night regulars, and fans of the musical. By contrast, Gladiator II is aimed squarely at an older, more serious audience, who tend not to rush out and see movies opening weekend. 

Still, the fact that Ridley Scott’s movie is a sequel to an all-time classic and the presence of the iconic Denzel Washington in a key role should allow it to perform well, with a $50 million opening – give or take $10 million or so. Overseas, it will be a blockbuster and may even outgross Wicked, but domestically, I think it will have to contend with the fact that the historical epic genre has been hit and miss, with Scott’s The Last Duel a flop and Napoleon underperforming. However, neither film was as well-reviewed (read ours) or as action-oriented as Gladiator II, so that should help inflate its box office somewhat.

Another big question mark is whether or not Red One will collapse at the box office following its soft $34 million opening. I expect Wicked to take a massive bite out of its gross, and I’d be surprised if it made much more than $18 million this weekend. Venom: The Last Dance should be behind it with about $5 million, while The Best Christmas Pageant Ever should round out the top 5 with about $3 million.

My box office estimates:

1. Wicked: $120 million
2. Gladiator II: $50 million
3. Red One: $18 million
4. Venom: The Last Dance: $5 million
5. Best Christmas Pageant Ever: $3 million

What do you think of our estimates? Let us know in the comments!