Box Office Predictions: Venom to lead a quiet post-Halloween weekend

The first weekend in November seems all but sure to be a quiet one; with no major new releases on the schedule that look like they can keep Venom: The Last Dance from dominating the weekend box office again. This is good news for the final chapter in Sony’s live-action Spider-Verse trilogy, as its opening last weekend was considered quite underwhelming, even if it seems to be a blockbuster overseas.

Word of mouth on the film doesn’t seem to be all that good, so the movie will likely fall in the 60% range, giving it a second weekend of under $20 million. Given how front-loaded the Thursday screenings were last week, I think Venom 3 will be lucky to have an $18 million second weekend. 

As mediocre a number as that is, it seems unlikely any of the other films in the top 10 will make over $5 million this weekend. Smile 2 seems like it might grab some of the Halloween carry-over audience, with a $5 million second weekend. Conclave, which proved to be a surprise hit for Focus last weekend, should manage a third-place finish with about $4 million. 

Another big question mark this weekend is how Robert Zemeckis’s Here will perform. While it reunites the director with his Forrest Gump stars, Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, the early reviews have been poor, and audiences tend to stay away in droves anytime de-aging is done, so I’m expecting a disastrous $3 million weekend. A24’s romance, We Live in Time, should easily snag a fifth-place finish with about $2.5 million. 

Here are my predictions for the top 5:

1. Venom: The Last Dance: $18 million
2. Smile 2: $5 million
3. Conclave: $4 million
4. Here: $3 million
5. We Live in Time: $2.5 million

Expect the box office doldrums to continue next weekend, with Heretic the only big opener. That movie seems unlikely to make much more than $10 million, so we likely won’t get any films opening to over $20 million until Dwayne Johnson’s Red One opens. Luckily, the rest of the month paints a rosier picture, with blockbuster audiences expected for Gladiator II and Wicked.