Box Office Predictions: Venom 3 to have the lowest opening in the series

It’s been a pretty brutal fall season at the box office. Going in, everyone assumed Joker: Folie a Deux would be the kind of worldwide blockbuster that propels box office receipts into the stratosphere. Obviously, that turned out not to be the case (to put it mildly), and while movies like The Wild Robot and Terrifier 3 performed very well, there hasn’t been a real blockbuster since the release of Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice early in September.

The box office doldrums seem set to continue this week, with Venom: The Last Dance looking like it will have the weakest opening of the franchise, with a $50 million start in the cards. While $50 million isn’t bad for a movie with a $120 million budget (reasonable for a superhero movie), it’s a far cry from the $80 million opening the first film had, and the monster $90 million opening of the second film (despite opening in the middle of the pandemic). 

So, why is Venom 3 set to open lower? Some may point at the reviews, but the series has always been critic-proof (read our review HERE). Rather, superhero fatigue seems to be the culprit, as does the fact that the live-action Sony Spider-Verse movies have become increasingly ridiculed in the wake of Morbius and Madame Web. 

The battle for number two should be interesting, with Smile 2 likely to hold on, given that the first film only fell 18% week-to-week, on its way to becoming a major sleeper hit. The well-reviewed sequel probably won’t have that kind of hold (which is exceedingly rare these days) but it should still make in the $15 million range, as the pre-Halloween weekend should help drive some folks to theatres who are looking for a scary flick. 

The Wild Robot and Terrifier 3 should be neck-and-neck for third place, with both looking to gross in the $6 million range. Given the spooky season, I’m going to give Terrifier the edge, but I could easily be wrong. Fifth place should go to Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, with about a $3 million weekend, unless last weekend’s sleeper, We Live in Time, really grows its audience as A24 starts to expand it.

Here are my predictions:

1. Venom: The Last Dance: $50 million
2. Smile 2: $15 million
3. Terrifier 3: $7 million
4. The Wild Robot: $6 million
5. Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice: $4 million

Are you going to see Venom 3 this weekend? Let us know in the comments!