Thor: Love and Thunder will easily maintain the top spot at the box office this weekend, but everyone will be looking at how steep the drop might be in week two following some polarizing responses to the film. This weekend will also offer some counter-programming in the form of Where the Crawdads Sing and Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank.
Thor: Love and Thunder has held up pretty decently in its weekday showings, with $12.1 million on Monday and $13.6 million on Tuesday. Its first Tuesday total is ahead of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($12.6 million), thanks to the fact that we’re deeper in the summer with more kids out of school than when the Doctor Strange sequel opened in May. That’s very encouraging since Thor: Love and Thunder is likely to hit $200 million in the next three days or so.
The latest Marvel entry does have to deal with middle-of-the-road word of mouth along with the typical Marvel second weekend decline. Even the more well-received entries in the MCU take a sizable hit in weekend two before stabilizing in the subsequent weeks. Spider-Man: No Way Home dropped 67% in weekend two, as did Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. Oddly enough, Eternals fared better than both of those films despite poorer reviews with a tumble of 62%. I’m expecting Thor: Love and Thunder to take a similar fall in the 60%+ range to gross about $50 million in weekend two.
In second place, you likely won’t find one of our new releases, but you will see those pesky Minions. The Universal/Illumination release has been performing very well since opening over the Fourth of July weekend, and even with the arrival of another animated film (Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank), I think kids and families will continue to make this their top animated option. I’m predicting $25 million for the third weekend of Minions: The Rise of Gru.
Where the Crawdads Sing is looking to counter-program to the female audience and take third for the weekend. I knew very little about his movie before doing predictions this week, but I have since learned that the film is based on the novel of the same name by Delia Owens, and the novel has done huge business since its release in 2018. By January of this year, the book had sold 12 million copies, making it one of the best-selling books of all time. That makes it clear to me why Sony Pictures didn’t just send this film off to streaming. They believe a built-in fanbase could make it a sleeper hit with the target audience. Pre-sales are said to be strong and are already tracking well with the novel’s female audience. It also has a strong producing name behind it, with Reese Witherspoon popping up in TV spots explaining why the book was perfect to be brought to the big screen. The big caveat here is that reviews have not been kind to the film so far. As of this writing, the movie is registering a rotten score of 36% on Rotten Tomatoes and we will have to wait and see if that will even matter to the target audience. It could very well be review-proof and if it’s as close to the novel as possible, it should prove to be a moderate hit this weekend and throughout the rest of the summer. I’m predicting a $16 million start for Where the Crawdads Sing.
Top Gun: Maverick, which just recently soared past $600 million at the domestic box office, will find itself in fourth place this weekend with another great hold. At this point, it’s not about the film’s weekend-to-weekend performance but more about whether it will end up being our highest-grossing film of the year? We still have Black Panther: Wakanda Forever on deck and Avatar: The Way of Water, but I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Top Gun: Maverick kept the crown. As for this weekend, I think Top Gun: Maverick sees $12.5 million.
Fifth place could go to either Elvis or new arrival Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank. Speaking of this latest animated release, the trailer currently running in theaters is funny enough, but there hasn’t been much of a TV spot push. I know some people that actually had no idea it was opening this weekend. Reviews are also a bit lukewarm for an animated film. As of this writing, the film has put up a rotten score of 57% on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s not the end of the world, but if it wants to pull a The Bad Guys, an animated film that seemed to have very little push but turned into a hit for the studio, it will need better reviews. The Bad Guys scored with critics and moviegoers, allowing word of mouth to carry it in the weeks after its opening weekend. Elvis continues to score with older moviegoers, and they’re continuing to show up for the biopic. I think it will be very close, but I say Elvis lands in fifth place with $7.9 million while Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank will debut just below the top five with $7.5 million.
What are YOUR box office predictions for the weekend?
TOP FIVE BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS:
- Thor: Love and Thunder – $50 million
- Minions: The Rise of Gru – $25 million
- Where the Crawdads Sing – $16 million
- Top Gun: Maverick – $12.5 million
- Elvis – $7.9 million
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