Box Office Predictions: The Nun II set to jump-scare her way to first place

This weekend sees the wide release of two movies aimed at vastly different audiences. In one corner, you have the possessed demons of The Nun II. On the other, you have the romantic adventures of My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3. The big question is whether audiences are still interested in either of these franchises.

Released on September 7, 2018, The Nun continued The Conjuring Universe, giving a spin-off story to the possessed Nun from The Conjuring 2. The Nun would launch with an impressive $53.8 million on its way to a massive $365.5 million worldwide, the most of any film in The Conjuring Universe. So it was only a matter of time before we got a sequel, and that time has come with this weekend’s release of The Nun II. There are no reviews yet, although would reviews really matter? The first film garnered horrible reviews from both critics and audiences and still managed its stellar performance. Personally, I felt those horrible reviews were warranted, as the movie was just a series of jump scares that weren’t actually scary. The thing is, horrible audience reviews generally mean that if a sequel is made, that sequel will suffer. A bit of the ole “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me” logic. Although our own JimmyO was invited to attend a lavish advanced screening of the film, and although his full review can not go up until the studio lifts their embargo, he did say he enjoyed the film and found it to be better than the first.

Horror films have seen a bit of an up-and-down at the box office in the past year and change. For every Smile ($217.4 million worldwide), there is a Last Voyage of the Demeter ($20.3 million worldwide). For every Talk to Me ($64.1 million worldwide), there is a Cobweb ($4.8 million worldwide). I think Nun II will have enough in its tanks to secure a first-place finish, but it won’t come near the over $53 million the original made. I think a $35 million debut is where this one will end up.

So the question now is: Which threequel can hit that second-place spot? I think The Equalizer 3 should have enough gas in its tank to have a drop in the 55% range. The first film saw a 45.1% drop in its second weekend, while the 2018 follow-up saw a 61.1% decline. With its 94% audience score, I think this one can get to a $15.5 million second weekend.

That leaves My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 to take third place with around $10-$12 million. The original film, 2002’s My Big Fat Greek Wedding, was the type of surprise monster success you could comfortably compare to something like Barbie. It was an independent film, released on just 108 screens, that gained in popularity through strong word of mouth until it ultimately made over $241.4 million domestically ($368.7 million worldwide) off of just a $5 million budget, becoming the highest-grossing romantic comedy of all time (a title it still holds to this day). 

With those stats, you would think they would have pumped out a sequel fairly quickly, but they waited a bit, 14 years to be exact. In 2016, they would release My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, opening with $17.8 million but ultimately reaching just $90.6 million worldwide. So now the question is, are people ready to return to Greece for a family reunion with characters they have known for over 20 years? 

Fourth place will go to Barbie with another $7-8 million added to its massive $1.38 billion worldwide gross. I think by now, most people have enjoyed the film several times in theaters and are waiting to watch it in the comfort of their own homes, which, according to Deadline, they will get the chance to do this coming Tuesday when the film hits PVOD.

Rounding out the top five will be a fight between Oppenheimer and Blue Beetle with around $4 million each. If there is any justice in the world, Oppenheimer will beat the Beetle as one movie is about a massive bomb while the other is just a massive bomb! 

Will you be making it to theaters this weekend? If so, let us know what you plan on seeing in the comments section, and don’t forget to check back with us on Saturday when we have a brief update on where the box office numbers are heading. 

TOP FIVE PREDICTIONS

1. The Nun II– $35 Million
2. The Equalizer 3– $15.5 Million
3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3– $11 Million
4. Barbie– $7.5 Million
5. Oppenheimer– $4 Million