Box Office Predictions: The Hunger Games Prequel to lead the pack

The big new release of the weekend is the prequel film The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes which is currently tracking for a $50 million domestic opening. That number would make it the first Hunger Games film to open under $100 million at the domestic box office with the last film in the franchise, 2015’s The Hunger Games: Mockingjay- Part 2 previously being the lowest at $102.6 million. The good news for this prequel that features the origins of President Snow (played by Donald Sutherland in the earlier films) is that it cost a modest (by today’s standards) $100 million. So with an opening in that $50 million range plus good word of mouth, this one has the potential to leg out over the holidays. 

Second place should go to the third Trolls movie as Trolls Band Together looks to fill a massive void for family programming. It’s been over a month and a half since Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie came out, and while that movie has seen small week to week drops, it is time for families to have something new to gather together for. In the past year, animated films that have come after a big gap in family programming have proven to be strong performers.

For Trolls Band Together, this third film pry won’t hit the same highs as the 2016 original that opened with $46.5 million on its way to a $154 million domestic total. While the sequel has a huge asterisk next to it as it was released in the thick of covid where it was given a streaming release for the price of $19.99, which made it one of the first films to test this model of releasing new movies during the pandemic. As there was no actual numbers reported, Universal claimed the sequel was a massive success on demand, pulling in over $100 million within days. Whether you believe that or not, it must have done well enough to continue the franchise. Trolls Band Together looks to open in the $30 million range. Despite Disney’s Wish coming next Wednesday, Trolls Band Together should still have a solid runway to success with the next batch of family films not coming until next month’s one two punch of Wonka on December 15 and Migration on December 22.

Third place will likely be The Marvels as it looks like it will likely drop at least 65% in its second weekend with around $15 million. The good news is that if this one can keep it under a 68% drop, it won’t be the worst second week decline in the MCU as that honor currently belongs to the 67.8% decline of Black Widow. But, the thing is, people seem to genuinely not like The Marvels, so it is very possible this one hits a 70% drop. I saw the film earlier this week and found it to be one of the most run of the mill movies I have ever seen. I didn’t hate it, as I have not flat out hated any MCU movie, but it just was nothing special.

For fans of holiday based slasher flicks, we have the Eli Roth film Thanksgiving that began life all the way back in 2007 when it was one of the fake trailers between Robert Rodriguez’s Planet Terror and Quentin Tarantino’s Death Proof in their mash-up Grindhouse. The idea must have festered in Roth’s head and now 16 years later, we finally get the feature length version starring the newly minted Sexiest Man Alive: Patrick Dempsey. Genre fans should propel this one to a low to mid teens opening which may seem low, until you realize the budget on this one is just $15 million.

The last of the wide new releases this week is the Taika Waititi directed Next Goal Wins based on the true story of the American Samoa national football team which was widely considered to be the worst football team in the world. The film is garnering some solid reviews with our own Chris Bumbray giving it a 7/10 in his review out of the Toronto International Film Festival. This is the type of movie that generally doesn’t explode at the box office and is tracking to do around $5 million for the weekend. That may be enough to land in fifth place, but it has to contend with Five Nights at Freddy’s and Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour if it wants to do that. Since I am an eternal optimist, I think this one can beat those two aging titles and grab that last spot in the top five.

Opening in limited release is the Emerald Fennell film Saltburn which is her first film since winning the Best Original Screenplay Oscar for Promising Young Woman and playing Midge (the Pregnant Barbie) in this summer’s massive hit Barbie. The film will see a limited release this weekend to help build word of mouth before going wide next Wednesday alongside the Ridley Scott epic Napoleon and the newest Disney film Wish.

If none of these titles appeal to you, may I make a strong suggestion and recommend you check out The Holdovers as it is genuinely one of the best movies of the year with sure to be Academy Award nominated performances by Paul Giamatti, Dominic Sessa and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (who is my current choice to win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress). You can check out Chris Bumbray’s 10/10 review here.

Do you plan on checking out one of the new releases this weekend? If so, let us know in the comments and don’t forget to check back on Saturday when we have a brief update on where the numbers are heading.

TOP FIVE PREDICTIONS

1. The Hunger Games: the Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes– $50 Million
2. Trolls Band Together– $30 Million
3. The Marvels– $15 Million
4. Thanksgiving– $13 Million
5. Next Goal Wins– $4.5 Million