Box Office Predictions for The Bad Guys, Northman, & Talent

Box office predictions, the northman, the unbearable weight of massive talent, the bad guys, box office

With Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore underperforming last weekend with a soft $42.1 million opening, that makes room for another film to claim the top spot this weekend. The Harry Potter spinoff is likely to take a hefty fall so that means three new wide releases, including two with a very niche audience, will try to make a case for solid finishes this weekend.

Here’s the interesting thing about all three new wide releases this weekend: They all are getting stellar reviews ahead of their release. The Bad Guys, a new animated film from Dreamworks Animation, has already put up decent numbers overseas and it’s coming into the weekend with a 92% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Based on a series of children’s graphic novels, the film follows reformed criminals that try to become good which results in hilarious hijinks. Featuring the vocal talent of Sam Rockwell, Marc Maroon, Awkwafina, Craig Robinson, and more, I was surprised I hadn’t seen spots for this until I viewed Sonic The Hedgehog 2. Marketing seems a bit light for a film that has such strong reviews behind it. The movie is also entering a bit of a crowded family marketplace with Sonic The Hedgehog 2 and, to a lesser extent, The Secrets of Dumbledore claiming some of the audience. That being said, of the three new wide releases, I think The Bad Guys will have the easiest time breaking out and how high it goes will be based solely on word of mouth. If The Secrets of Dumbledore loses more than half of its audience this weekend, The Bad Guys is likely to take the top spot and I predict it will be VERY close. The weekend for Fantastic Beasts indicates a big fall ahead but as we have seen recently, the box office can be all over the place with films truly breaking out or just completely underperforming. Hell, we might see Sonic The Hedgehog 2 stabilize a bit more and jump back into the top spot. This is really a weekend where anything could happen. I’m going to give The Bad Guys the slight edge for the weekend with a gross of $17 million.

That means I’m predicting a second-place finish for the sophomore weekend of Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore. It would appear that the film is struggling to reach beyond hardcore Harry Potter fans and even they seem a bit done with this part of the universe. Those overseas numbers are really going to be doing all the work here as the movie is going to miss the $100 million mark at the domestic box office. Not something I would ever expect for the world of Harry Potter but this should be a lesson that starting these five-movie plans for some tentpole releases is not a good idea. Take it film by film to see if the audience is truly there. I doubt we will be getting two more movies from this franchise given the diminishing returns. I’m predicting $16.5 million for its second weekend.

Sonic The Hedgehog 2 should place third unless The Secrets of Dumbledore falls even more than expected. The Sonic sequel did tumble a bit harder than anticipated last weekend but it should be able to level off a bit from its previous fall. It’s going to be close for sure but I’m predicting $16 million for Sonic The Hedgehog 2 in weekend three.

The Northman is a tricky one to predict and I will say here first that if this ends up overperforming, I won’t be surprised but I’m basing this prediction purely on awareness from casual moviegoers. The film comes from acclaimed director Robert Eggers, who gave us The Witch and The Lighthouse. They were more critical darlings rather than box office heavyweights but Eggers is working with his biggest budget to date on The Northman at a staggering $90 million. That’s not huge by typical tentpole standards but a considerable amount given the fact that Eggers hasn’t really worked on this scale before. The Viking epic stars Alexander Skarsgard, Nicole Kidman, Anya Taylor-Joy, Ethan Hawke, Bjork, and Willem Dafoe, and follows a Viking prince on his mission to avenge his father’s death. Reviews for the film, like Egger’s previous efforts, are strong. As of this writing, the movie is 88% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and social media buzz has also been solid. The issue at hand is that the audience for this is very niche and there is an issue of awareness beyond hardcore fans of Eggers. Marketing has gotten stronger in the days leading up to its release and it could capture the male demographic in a significant way but Egger’s previous films weren’t exactly huge box office earners either. The Witch grossed $25 million while The Lighthouse tapped out at $10 million. The Northman will have a strong life on PVOD and streaming and it seems primed to be a cult classic but for now, and this seems generous, I’m predicting $10.5 million for the weekend.

That leaves us with The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent, which should round out the top five for the weekend. The Nicolas Cage comedy which sees the actor playing an exaggerated version of himself is actually the best-reviewed film of the weekend with a current score of 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. Co-starring Pedro Pascal and Tiffany Haddish, the movie sees Cage accepting $1 million from a superfan to attend a birthday party but Cage is ultimately recruited by the CIA to take down Pascal’s superfan, who is actually a drug kingpin. It all sounds wonderfully ridiculous and the movie has generated considerable buzz since premiering at South by Southwest in March. It could be a close race with The Northman and that will come down to the film getting the attention of moviegoers who aren’t entirely in on the joke. We definitely have another cult classic on our hands but I’m predicting about $9 million for The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent.

What are YOUR predictions for this weekend’s box office?

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