Box Office Prediction: September to end with a Smile

This weekend sees the release of two very different films in Paramount’s horror film Smile and Universal’s comedy Bros. Smile stands the best chance at taking first place. Early tracking numbers put it somewhere around this summer’s quite excellent The Black Phone which opened with $23.6 Million back in June. Add to that solid reviews (like our own) that say this one is a genuinely creepy and unsettling experience and some pretty genius marketing, and you have the makings for the first movie to open north of $20 Million in over a month.

Second place should go to the aforementioned Bros, although this one is a bit tough to call. If this was ten years ago, I’d say this one is a surefire hit. An R rated romantic comedy from the director of Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Neighbors should be an easy sell. However the market has kind of cooled on R rated comedies recently. Sure, earlier this year we saw Jackass Forever take in nearly $60 Million, but that is kind of a different beast. The last financially successful traditional R rated comedy would be 2019’s Good Boys with over $83 million and we’d have to go all the way back to July 2017 for an R rated comedy that actually cracked $100 Million at the domestic box office with the movie Girls Trip. 

The good thing for Bros is that reviews have been fairly universal in its praise (including our own). Many of the reviews state how the movie is a massive step forward in terms of representation on screen as this marks the first wide release LGBTQ+ film released from a major studio, but just as important: the reviews also say the movie is genuinely funny! And as big a fan of Billy Eichner as I am (I love his Billy on the Street segments) his name doesn’t have the recognition that will sell tickets on its own. I’m not sure how many people are saying they need to get to the theater to see the movie starring the guy who voiced Timon in the semi live action Lion King. 

Tracking on the film has been somewhat quiet with Universal expecting Bros to open in the $10 Million range. But like I said, this is a tough one to call. Will people eager to see a lighthearted romantic comedy featuring a cast of people you don’t generally see leading these types of movies, come out to theaters and help it become a sleeper hit? I think it is possible and can see this one opening closer to $15 Million.

The remainder of this weekend will be the continued success of Viola Davis’ The Woman King followed by Don’t Worry Darling which will probably have a significant drop off as word of mouth has not been very strong for this Olivia Wilde directed film. The re-release of Avatar should round out the top 5 as that one still claims the majority of Imax screens, and is worth every penny if you have the time to catch it in Imax 3D this weekend. I went a few days ago and it really did bring me back to 2009 when I first immersed myself in the world of Pandora. Don’t forget to stay through the credits as fans were rewarded with a truly breathtaking 3D scene from the upcoming Avatar: The Way of Water.

And if you are in the mood for some more frights this weekend, I can’t recommend Barbarian or Pearl enough. They are genuinely creepy and original horror films that would be best experienced in a dark theater with a group of people who can’t take their eyes off the screen.

Will you be heading to theaters this weekend or is the long anticipated streaming release of Hocus Pocus 2 on Disney+ all the entertainment you need? Let us know in the comments and don’t forget to check back in with us on Saturday when we give a brief update on the box office numbers.

TOP 5 BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS:

SMILE– $20 Million

BROS– $15 Million

THE WOMAN KING– $8 Million

DON’T WORRY DARLING– $7 Million

AVATAR– $6.5 Million