Box Office Predictions: Red One set for one of The Rock’s lowest-grossing openings

The box office doldrums seem set to continue this weekend, with Dwayne Johnson’s mega-budget Christmas comedy, Red One, on track to deliver one of the star’s worst opening weekends ever. When the movie was announced, it certainly seemed like a no-brainer. After all, The Rock and director Jake Kasdan had a pair of mega-hits under their belts with their Jumanji movies, and the idea for this movie seemed to be that it would marry that formula to the holidays and possibly kick off a new franchise. 

So what happened?

Initially, Red One was meant to be a streaming play for Prime Video, and had it been kept in that lane, it likely would have proven to be a hit for the streamer in the same vein as Johnson’s previous Red Notice, which still ranks as Netflix’s biggest movie ever. Yet, somewhere along the way, the decision was made to give Red One a wide theatrical release, but that seems to have been a poor choice. Like other streaming movies that were given theatrical bows, such as Fly Me To The Moon and Argylle, audiences seem like they’re going to be staying away in droves. I expect Red One to have a poor opening in the $25 million range.

Why is it going to do so badly? One reason may be that audiences are hip to streaming trends. If Red One is a holiday film, does anyone really think Prime Video won’t be streaming the movie within a few weeks to take advantage of the season? Audiences curious to see The Rock and Chris Evans in this action-comedy will simply wait a couple of weeks until it inevitably premieres on Prime Video. Why bother seeing it in theatres? 

There’s also the fact that The Rock’s star power seems to be waning. Johnson’s made too many movies that seem cyclically targeted to be four-quadrant smash hits that will print money, and they’re starting to feel awfully familiar. Is there a big difference between Jungle Cruise, Jumanji and Red One? Have any of those films actually been really good? In the wake of Black Adam underperforming, Johnson’s appeal might be waning to a certain extent. However, the good news for him is that Moana 2, which comes out in just a few weeks, will likely be a smash hit, while his upcoming film with Benny Safdie, The Smashing Machine, might help him get his mojo back as an actor.

Venom: The Last Dance should be able to take the number two spot with a $10 million weekend. Expect last week’s number two champ, The Best Christmas Pageant Ever, to move down to third place with a $7 million weekend, while A24’s horror flick Heretic should make about $5 million. The Wild Robot should come in fifth with about $4 million.

Here are our predictions:

1. Red One: $25 million
2. Venom: The Last Dance: $10 million
3. Best Christmas Pageant Ever: $7million
4. Heretic: $5 million
5. The Wild Robot: $4 million

Do you think Red One will be a box office bust? Let us know in the comments!