Box Office Predictions: Night Swim to continue strong January horror trend

Traditionally the first month of the year has been a dumping ground as studios have steered clear of the residual glow of the holiday blockbusters and the prestige films audiences try to catch up on before the awards begin to air. January may not be the best time to launch your new $300 million budgeted tent pole franchise picture, but it has proven a great launch pad for moderately budgeted horror films. 

Over the past ten years we have seen films such as Texas Chainsaw (2013- $21.7 million opening), Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones (2014- $18.3 million opening), Insidious: The Last Key (2018- $29.5 million opening), Escape Room (2019- $18.2 million opening), Scream (2022- $33.8 million opening) and M3GAN (2023- $30.4 million opening) show that audiences like to kick off their new years with a little bit of spine tingling scares. 

This year James Wan and Jason Blum, who recently announced the merger of their two production companies, bring us their newest tale of terror with Night Swim, a film that looks to do to swimming pools what Jaws did to the ocean. As of this writing, the review embargo has not been lifted on the film and as such I can’t tell you if the film is trending to be a new horror classic or a forgettable piece of schlock. What I can tell you is that despite last year being a solid return to the movies from a financial stand point, reaching over $9 Billion in ticket sales, the best number since the pandemic, we closed out the year on a decent if unimpressive note.

In years past, there would be zero question that the big Superhero film that launched during the holidays would continue to clean up at the box office, but Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom turned out to be a giant lump of coal (and I will even say I don’t believe that to be Director James Wan’s fault, I think these DC movies had too much studio interference to the point Wan was just there to call action and cut.) 

Wonka became the big Holiday 2023 winner and should still see some solid numbers in the coming weeks as the box office sees a bit of a lull in between seasons. The big question is will Night Swim have enough juice to start the new year off on top? I do believe it does. The trailers for the film were effective and creepy and the film doesn’t need astronomical numbers to land in first. I believe anything above $15 million will take it, and I think this one has the juice to get around $17 million. Horror films do tend to be critic proof, so even if reviews come out that call this PG13 horror film complete garbage, audiences will still show up.

That will leave Wonka to take second place with around $15 million, which would be a drop in the 30% range. The film has proven to be a genuine crowd pleaser with a 91% audience score, that provided a genuine new story with enough connective tissue to the original film (and book) to give audiences that rush of nostalgia.

Third place should go to the animated birds of Migration as that film has also been playing the long game in theaters with small daily drops as families don’t always feel the need to rush out to theaters immediately. I think this one will see a weekend in the $12 million range as it continues its slow march to the $100 million club and beyond.

The aforementioned Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom has the opportunity to join that $100 million club this weekend if it can secure around $10 million. I’m not entirely sure it will get there, falling just short with around $8-$9 million. However, international numbers are actually pretty solid on this final entry in the DCEU as it has amassed nearly $200 million overseas for a worldwide total around $270 million. That number seems impressive, until you realize the film has a budget of over $200 million.

Spot five will be a fight between a few movies. The R rated romantic comedy Anyone But You has been the victor throughout the week over its competition in The Color Purple and The Boys in the Boat with the latter of the two only separated by about $27,000 at Tuesday’s box office. I don’t believe the George Clooney directed The Boys in the Boat will take that spot, even though it deserves it in my opinion as I found the film to be an old school feel good sports biopic. I will give the edge to The Color Purple for that fifth spot as I think the awards recognition it has received will propel it slightly ahead of Anyone But You with around $7 million in receipts. But we shall see, the musical adaptation has suffered some steep drop offs since its strong debut on Christmas Day. 

Will you be catching the new horror film Night Swim this weekend or catching up on some of the end of year titles you missed? Let us know in the comments and don’t forget to check back with us on Saturday when we have a brief update on where the box office numbers are heading.

TOP FIVE PREDICTIONS

1. Night Swim– $17 Million
2. Wonka– $15 Million
3. Migration– $12 Million
4. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom– $8.5 Million
5. The Color Purple– $7 Million