Box Office Predictions: Moana 2 and Wicked to lead holdovers post Thanksgiving

Last Updated on December 9, 2024

The first week of December is notoriously dead as far as new movies go. Of course, there’s a reason for this, as traditionally, Thanksgiving is one of the highest-grossing weekends of the year, and the titles released during this corridor tend to do big holdover business. As such, neither of the weekend’s new releases, the A24 horror comedy Y2K or the Frank Grillo action flick Werewolves, are expected to break the bank. That said, I wouldn’t chalk up either as a flop or even disappointing, as they are targeting niche audiences and likely aren’t even aiming at opening in the top five, given their modest promotional pushes and theatre counts.

This weekend, expect Moana 2 to make in the $65 million range, as family audiences will continue to turn out in droves to see this record-breaking sequel. I also expect Wicked, in week three, to hold up exceptionally well, with it likely to perform in the $45 million range as it races towards a final gross in the $5-600 million range. Ironically, this has been a box office phenomenon that’s been uniquely limited to North America, as the foreign gross has only been a fraction of what it’s made here.

By contrast, Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II is doing the opposite. Its box office performance in North America had been solid—if unspectacular—while overseas, it’s a blockbuster, having doubled its domestic gross. This weekend, it should hold on to third place with about $15 million or so. Red One should be behind it with bout $7 million, while Y2K might be able to ride the cult popularity of its home studio – A24 – to a fifth-place finish in the $4 million range.

Here’s what we predict:

1. Moana 2: $65 million
2. Wicked: $45 million
3. Gladiator II: $15 million
4. Red One: $7 million
5. Y2K: $4 million

Do you think our numbers are accurate? Let us know in the comments!