Box Office Predictions: M3GAN no match for Avatar 2?

With the first full weekend of 2023 upon us, the story won’t be much different than it has been the past few weeks. Avatar The Way of Water continues its utter domination of the marketplace as this week it passed the $1.5 billion mark to officially become the highest grossing title of 2022 worldwide. Add to that the fact that it continues setting daily records including setting the best Monday ever for the month of January (with over $21 million).

So where does this weekend stand for the blockbuster sequel? Last weekend saw the film take in $67.4 million which actually represented a 6.4% increase over its previous week’s take (in our original Weekend Box Office report from Sunday we had the total at $63.4 million which represented a 0% gain or loss. It is important to note that Sunday numbers are mere projections given by the studio who tend to under-predict as it is better to come in above projections than lower, which of course resulted in Avatar’s Sunday numbers being much stronger than the studio predicted). 

So the question is where can Avatar: The Way of Water get to in its fourth weekend of release? I’m not seeing a massive drop to be honest. The film is still commanding all of the premium theaters (Imax, Dolby, etc…) so I can’t see this one losing a lot of ground. I think a weekend finish between $38-$42 million is in order. With the exception of its underwhelming domestic opening, the film has continued to surprise basically every day as it climbs its way up the all time earners list.

This weekend also sees the first wide release of the new year with the James Wan produced M3GAN which is actually getting some solid reviews (currently at 98% on Rotten Tomatoes). Our own Chris Bumbray found enough to enjoy in the PG13 rated film to give it a 7/10 rating, yet said he wished they had stuck with their originally intended R rating as the PG13 rating did feel a bit watered down. 

Tracking for M3GAN has it coming in with around $17 million for the weekend. The thing with horror movie tracking is that their pre-sales are never very impressive looking, it is the walk up business that generally drives the horror market and this one had an intriguing enough trailer that I think will have many fans wanting to check it out. I think this one can at the very least get to the $20 million mark this weekend. Of course the question will be if that “watered down” feeling that Chris Bumbray had will be felt by general audiences which could impact its long term box office returns. 

The remainder of the box office this weekend looks to be your holdovers Puss in Boots: The Last Wish which should continue its solid run with another $10 million while Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will remain in the top five with another $3 million.

The big X-factor this weekend will be the expansion of the Tom Hanks starring A Man Called Otto which brings its screen count to around 600. The film has garnered middle of the road reviews (including a 5/10 from Chris Bumbray) and only managed a little over $56,000 last weekend on four screens. But never count out Tom Hanks! In an age where people claim that the movie star is dead, there are still some celebrities that can put butts in seats with just their name in the credits and Tom Hanks is without a shadow of a doubt one of those people. The only problem is that A Man Called Otto is a more adult skewing film and since the pandemic began nearly three years ago (wow, its been three years of Covid already?!) adult skewing movies have struggled at the box office. I don’t think Otto is going to set the box office on fire, but I think enough people are willing to spend 2 hours and 6 minutes with Tom Hanks, even if he is playing against type as a curmudgeon. I see this one nabbing around $2.5 million.

Will this be the weekend you finally find out what all the hype is about with Avatar: The Way of Water or is a new killer doll movie movie more your appetite? Let us know in the comments and don’t forget to check back on Saturday when we give a brief update on this weekends numbers.

TOP 5 PREDICTIONS

1) Avatar: The Way of Water– $40 Million

2) M3GAN– $20 Million

3) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish– $10 Million

4) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever– $3 Million

5) A Man Called Otto– $2.5 Million