After two stellar weeks of having Top Gun: Maverick rule the box office, Jurassic World: Dominion is upon us and it’s set to roar all the way to the top spot. The caveat here is how will the already dismal reviews affect its box office potential this weekend?
We discussed yesterday that box office tracking had this film opening in the $205 million+ range but it has since dipped to $125 million in tracking. This was due to the early social media reaction being very mixed but that mixed reaction has gotten a bit more negative now that the review embargo has been lifted. As of this writing, Jurassic World: Dominion is 38% rotten with 137 reviews counted. That’s even lower than the 47% registered by its predecessor, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. There is a belief that the Jurassic franchise is review proof since even with poor reviews, Fallen Kingdom opened to $148 million and eventually grossed $1.3 billion worldwide. This could very well be true. The dinosaur action might be enough to entice moviegoers but I think there was a sense that this third entry would be better. Bringing back the core three of 1993’s Jurassic Park (Sam Neill, Laura Dern, and Jeff Goldblum) and mixing them in with the Jurassic World cast seemed like an epic meeting of the minds but the lack of excitement from the early reviews could make some stay away.
Despite what’s working against Jurassic World: Dominion, I still think a $125 million opening seems too low. Deadline says that the film’s presales are pacing on a similar level to that of Top Gun: Maverick, which ultimately resulted in a $126.7 million opening for the three-day portion of the Memorial Day weekend. You might say, well doesn’t mean Jurassic World will essentially match that figure based on presales? The difference is that the Jurassic franchise has more drive with families when compared to Top Gun: Maverick. Dominion also takes charge of most of the Tom Cruise-led film’s premium formats, including IMAX, this weekend. This should give the dino sequel a boost throughout its debut arrival. Earlier in the week, I was calling a possible $190-195 million for Jurassic World: Dominion but with the reviews coming in, I don’t think it will reach those heights. That being said, I think it has enough nostalgia appeal and curiosity behind it to allow the film to open slightly lower than Fallen Kingdom with a debut of $145 million this weekend.
Top Gun: Maverick will give up first place for second but I think there will be plenty of room for the sequel to play really well with the dinosaurs. In most circumstances, two tentpoles like this can’t live together because they can cut into each other’s audience. The is an overlap in the middle-age demos for both Top Gun: Maverick and Jurassic World: Dominion but I spent the last two weeks underestimating Tom Cruise and his return as Maverick. I’m thinking this weekend I shouldn’t do that. I’m going to go out on a limb and say Top Gun: Maverick doesn’t drop more than 50% this weekend and is able to take in $55 million in week three.
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness will place third as it gets closer to $400 million at the domestic box office. The Marvel sequel has performed well in the wake of Top Gun: Maverick and hasn’t seen the traditional 50%+ drops that plague most tentpole releases. I’m calling a weekend of about $4.5 million.
The Bad Guys and The Bob’s Burgers Movie will take fourth and fifth this weekend and now I’m actually thinking the former can possibly leg it out to $100 million by the end of its run. It’s going to be very close but if it continues to have similar holds as it has had in the last few weeks, it’s very possible. I’m calling a $2.7 million weekend for The Bad Guys while The Bob’s Burgers Movie will be a bit below it at $2.4 million as the target audience mostly took in the film during its opening weekend.
What are YOUR predictions for this weekend’s box office?
TOP FIVE BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS: