Box Office Predictions: IF to open in the $30 million range

Last Updated on May 24, 2024

People often criticize Hollywood for their reliance on IP, and this weekend, director John Krasinski, who successfully launched his own franchise with A Quiet Place, hopes to buck the trend by releasing his latest, IF, a big-budget family film starring Ryan Reynolds. The movie, whose title stands for “Imaginary Friend”  was also written by Krasinski and boasts a who’s who of actors voicing the titular characters, including his former The Office co-star Steve Carell, wife Emily Blunt, and ultra-famous colleagues like George Clooney, Bradley Cooper, Jon Stewart, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Matt Damon, and many more. 

Given all that star power, the film seems likely to come in first at the box office this weekend, but the reviews (so far) have been largely unkind. The film wasn’t screened in many major markets (such as my own), so some of us will be hitting early screenings tomorrow night to file our reviews. Movies like this are tough to pull off, with the risk being that they’ll come off as treacle, or even worse, insincere, meaning a guy like Krasinski will have to walk a bit of a tightrope that’s perhaps tricker than what he had to accomplish with the more straightforward chills of A Quiet Place.

Despite a top-billed Ryan Reynolds, I think the movie will only open at $30 million. Family audiences are likely to be split between this and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, which should be a strong second with around $28 million (of course, there’s a narrow chance Apes could actually pull off a first-place finish, which would be a disaster for Krasinski’s movie). His A Quiet Place prequel will likely make a lot more money at the box office this summer.

Third place should go to the first movie in Renny Harlin’s The Strangers reboot trilogy, with the Lionsgate release likely to open in the $10 million range. While that’s soft for a horror film, the budget for these movies are relatively low, and if people like the first one, the subsequent instalments (which are already done) could make more. 

Fourth place should go to The Fall Guy, which will likely make around $8 million, while the Amy Winehouse biopic Back to Black (which we didn’t like too much) should finish fifth with about $4 million.

Here are our predictions:

1. IF: $30 million
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $28 million
3. The Strangers: Chapter 1: $10 million
4. The Fall Guy: $8 million
5. Back to Black: $4 million

What do you think will finish first this weekend? Let us know in the comments!