Fresh off of a record setting weekend that bled over into record setting weekday numbers, Barbie will easily retain the top spot at the charts with what many are predicting to be a low to mid 50% drop off putting the movie between $70-$80 million for its sophomore frame. I think this movie has such momentum and fandom, that I don’t think it drops that much. Last week I underestimated how well the movie could do by about $47 million, originally it was $40 million, but when the actual numbers came in, Barbie had beaten its $155 million weekend estimate by a full $7 million, for an official opening weekend take of a record breaking $162 million. So this week I am going to say Barbie has a drop in the 40% range and pulls in around $90 million. The only thing that could make that number be off would be the loss of the premium screens (such as Dolby) at many theaters to make way for the new release of the week, however I don’t think that new release will be in those premium screens for very long as I bet theaters are anxious to get Barbie back onto those screens ASAP.
Oppenheimer should land in second place as that movie will retain its Imax screens, which have been largely sold out across the country all week long. What’s even more impressive, Barbie’s audience score has dipped a bit during the week (from a 90% last week to a current 86%…of course I wouldn’t be surprised if some of that is review bombing) while Oppenheimer’s audience score has only fallen 1% since last week as it currently sits at a 92%. I think Oppenheimer will also have a relatively small drop from its strong opening weekend of just over $82 million and land with around $50 million. The spectacle of Barbenheimer seems to have worked not just for the epic event of it all, but the fact that both movies are vastly different yet genuinely good.
Third place will go to the big new release of the week Disney’s Haunted Mansion. Right now tracking has the film in the $35 million range, but justifiably horrible reviews and the fact that it is coming in the wake of two of the biggest movies of the year, will sink this one and I’d be surprised if it lands over $25 million. I say “justifiably” horrible reviews because the film currently holds a 45% on Rotten Tomatoes, and as I saw the movie last night, I can say, that score seems little too high! It was just an incredibly run of the mill movie that had very few moments that were even mildly amusing. Thank god they cast Owen Wilson and Danny DeVito or the movie would have had zero laughs. I hate to say it as I am a big proponent of seeing movies in theaters, but this one will be a much better watch when it hits home video, especially around Halloween time. You can check out Chris Bumbray’s 5/10 review here.
Rounding out the top five will be the continued success of Sound of Freedom which seems to have its passionate fans continuing to buy tickets in droves, including tickets that aren’t for themselves, leading to small decreases each week. I guess with Barbie and Sound of Freedom in theaters at the same time, there truly is something for everyone at the box office!
I also expect Mission: Impossible- Dead Reckoning Part One to level off this weekend after its softer than expected opening and its severe second week drop. Again, those numbers are not representative of the quality of the movie as it is quite excellent, with both critics and audiences enjoying it as well (96% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 94% audience score.) I think it is a good thing that we have such a crowded marketplace right now, but it seems that has come at the expense of this very solid movie. But this isn’t like a Haunted Mansion where waiting for home video is fine, Mission: Impossible films are big screen experiences, so hopefully more people realize that in the coming weeks and get this one to leg out to a respectable finish, with this weekend hopefully hitting at least $15 million.
The other new release of the week is the A24 horror film Talk To Me which has seen some effectively creepy marketing and garnered some solid reviews (currently at 95% on Rotten Tomatoes) however its audience score leaves a bit to be desired (currently at a 73%.) Despite that marketing, I don’t think it has reached enough people to really put that big of a dent at the box office this weekend and I’d expect it to land somewhere near the bottom of the top ten this weekend with around $3-$4 million.
Do you plan on hitting theaters this weekend? Let us know what you plan on checking out in the comments and don’t forget to check back with us on Saturday when we have a brief update on where this weekend’s box office numbers are heading.
TOP FIVE PREDICTIONS