Box Office Predictions: Halloween to End Box Office Drought

This weekend sees the highly anticipated release of the concluding chapter of the retconned Halloween franchise! We say retconned because it ignored all original Halloween sequels and remakes to carve out its own path of terror (my eyes went crooked just typing that).

Beginning in 2018, David Gordon Green and Danny McBride (yes, that Danny McBride) set out to make a a proper sequel to the original Halloween that ignored every other film in the franchise. No longer were Laurie Strode and Michael Myers brother and sister and for that matter, no longer was Laurie Strode dead (as she had been killed in 2009’s Halloween: Resurrection). 

That gamble paid off as 2018’s Halloween opened with over $77 million in domestic receipts making it the highest opening ever for a movie with a female lead over 55. Critics also welcomed the return to Haddonfield calling the sequel an effective return to basics. The film would finish its theatrical run with over $255 million worldwide on just a $10 million budget and it wasn’t long after that audiences were told two more films were on the way. 

After a Covid-19 caused delays, Halloween Kills hit cinemas on October 15, 2021 under a slightly new release strategy. The pandemic saw studios embracing their streamers, even when it came to hotly anticipated titles that didn’t really need the streaming boost. Kills would premiere day and date on the Peacock streaming service which many believe cut into its box office prospects as the film opened with a still respectable $49 million on its way to a $131 million worldwide finish. Critics were lukewarm on this one as they felt the kills were gruesome and creative but the film suffered from middle movie syndrome where it didn’t really advance the plot.

All of that leads us here: the release of the final installment in the Laurie Strode saga: Halloween Ends is currently tracking to have a slightly better opening than its predecessor. Ends is following Kills release strategy and releasing day and date on the Peacock streaming service which could potentially cut into its box office. However the good news for this one is: there hasn’t been an opening over $25 million in nearly 3 months (when Jordan Peele’s Nope secured $44.3 million) so any opening north of $50 million for this franchise capper will be nothing but good news for the box office. I think the fact that theaters have been quiet for a while, combined with the Halloween season and the fact that people want to see how this over 40 year old saga ends could bring this one slightly higher with a $55 million opening.

Of course if anything can spoil the box office for Halloween Ends, it will be the surprise continuing success of the original horror film Smile which last week boasted just a 22% decline in ticket sales. Smile could see audiences split on which horror movie to see this weekend and with the divisive nature of Halloween Kills potentially having an impact on Ends ticket sales, it’s possible audiences opt for the original title with solid word of mouth.

The remainder of the top five will go to your singing crocodiles, your women king’s and depending on how hard a drop it takes: a trip to Amsterdam (although don’t count out Don’t Worry Darling).

Opening in a limited release is the true story Till which has been getting great reviews with particular praise for lead actress Danielle Deadwyler (the phrase “Future Oscar Nominee” has been thrown out). The limited release will limit its box office potential this weekend, however this is a more traditional “word of mouth” roll out that should build anticipation for when it goes wide on October 28th. 

Will you be heading to the theaters this weekend? If so let us know what you plan on seeing in the comments and don’t forget to check back on Saturday when we give a brief update on the box office numbers.

BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS

1. Halloween Ends– $55 Million
2. Smile– $13 Million
3. Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile– $6.5 Million
4. The Woman King– $4 Million
5. Amsterdam– $2 Million