Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness opened to a very impressive $187.4 million to kick off the summer movie season and this weekend it will have no problem maintaining the top spot. The only new wide release this weekend is the remake of Stephen King’s Firestarter but, despite opening on a prime horror day like Friday the 13th, the film’s day-and-date release on the Peacock streaming service will likely extinguish its box office potential.
I’m going to discuss Firestarter first because its release strategy has been very questionable heading into its opening. The film, starring Zac Efron, comes from Universal/Blumhouse and they are usually pros at marketing these micro-budgeted horror efforts. What’s weird is that there has been very little marketing muscle behind the release and buzz seems virtually nonexistent. That leads me to believe that they either know they have a stinker or they’re relying heavily on its performance via streaming on Peacock, where it could likely do decent business. Pre-sales are reportedly very light and its impact on social media is also lacking. I wouldn’t be surprised if most people even knew this was coming out this weekend.
There is a SLIGHT possibility that there could be some last-minute interest in the movie given the Friday the 13th release date and the horror genre’s occasional nature to peak at the last minute. The reason I think this is more of a quality issue above all else is that there are still no reviews counted on Rotten Tomatoes. The studio is likely waiting until the last minute to lift the review embargo because they know things aren’t looking good. That’s a shame because a remake of the 1984 film, which starred Drew Barrymore as a child who turns out to be pyrokinetic, could’ve improved on that movie’s shortcomings but that doesn’t appear to be the case. This could be why the Peacock release was established. Moviegoers might be more inclined to watch the movie at home rather than risk wasting their hard-earned dollars. Not to mention, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness also has the horror element covered this weekend so Firestarter may find itself merely blowing smoke. I’m predicting an $8 million start for Firestarter.
That leaves us with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. The movie will easily place first in its second weekend but how severe will the drop be? Even the best Marvel films see relatively steep declines because the fanboy rush is usually strong for their titles. The best comparison for Doctor Strange is actually 2016’s Captain America: Civil War. That film dropped 59.5% in May of the year it was released and that was after coming off a Mother’s Day weekend release. Doctor Strange is in the very same situation but some signs show the movie is in for a bit of a sharper decline. The film is being very well-received in some circles while it’s really divisive in others. It also doesn’t have the same broad appeal as most Marvel titles to sway casual moviegoers. I’m probably making this sound like it’s headed for disaster. That’s not the case. Marvel is very happy with its performance but we are going to see the aftermath of a film that experienced the fanboy rush and being frontloaded. While the decline will be slightly sharp, it doesn’t have other tentpole competition until the release of Top Gun: Maverick on May 27, 2022. It has a couple of weekends to itself to pull in some serious money before it has to share the wealth. I’m predicting a $68.5 million weekend for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness.
Firestarter, if matching my prediction, will take second, but it’s possible it might come up short and full beneath The Bad Guys. I probably have too much faith in the Friday the 13th horror rush which is why I’m giving the slight edge to Firestarter but I wouldn’t be shocked if The Bad Guys pulled ahead. As of now, I’m calling third place for The Bad Guys with $7.5 million. The rest of the top five should have Sonic The Hedgehog 2 pulling in about $4.7 million while Everything Everywhere All at Once should continue its word-of-mouth journey with another fifth-place finish and a gross of $3.3 million.
What are YOUR predictions for this weekend’s box office?
TOP FIVE BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS:
- Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness – $68.5 million
- Firestarter – $8 million
- The Bad Guys – $7.5 million
- Sonic The Hedgehog 2 – $4.7 million
- Everything Everywhere All at Once – $3.3 million
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