Box office Predictions Doctor Strange & Downton Abbey

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness should easily three-peat at number one this weekend but Downton Abbey: A New Era should see a strong showing due to counter-programming to the older female demographic.

Let’s look at Downton Abbey: A New Era first. The film is a sequel to Downton Abbey, which itself was following a strong television run that had a very passionate fanbase. I’ll admit, this was a fanbase I underestimated when the first film was released three years ago. I figured the film would perform well overseas, particularly in the U.K., but the movie even shattered expectations in the U.S. during its opening weekend. The film debuted on September 20, 2019, and by the end of the weekend, Downton Abbey grossed $31 million. The film’s budget of $13 million and then some was recouped after one weekend and by the end of its run, the film pulled in $96.8 million at the domestic box office. With its global haul factored in, Downton Abbey brought its worldwide total to $192.1 million.

The first film’s opening was fueled by the older female demographic at 74% and about 60% of that demo was over the age of 35. This will be the same for the sequel but the major caveat here is that we’re still coming out of the pandemic box office and the older female demo has been more reluctant to return to the theater in droves. This weekend will basically be the biggest test that this particular demographic is ready to come out to see the right film. There are bound to be some diminishing returns here due to the pandemic and also the film’s release date. It does show a vote of confidence from Focus Features that they positioned the film during this weekend in May which is essentially the summer box office. On the other hand, the original film’s September release date seems more suited for a movie like this so it could be argued that a fall debuted would’ve worked better in the long run.

What’s encouraging is that the Downton sequel has healthy pre-sales for Early Access showings, Thursday previews, and Friday matinees. This shows that the audience is there but we will have to wait and see exactly how frontloaded the film will be throughout the weekend. Reviews are solid at 79% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes which isn’t too far off from the first film’s 84% rating. The movie is also opening at 3,814 locations compared to the first film’s 3,079 locations three years ago. That’s a 24% increase and that could mean that studio is at least expecting an opening close to its predecessors. I’m going to call a $25 million opening for Downton Abbey: A New Era but I won’t be surprised if it goes a tad higher.

That means Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness will maintain the top spot this weekend before Tom Cruise and Top Gun: Maverick makes moviegoers feel the need for speed in a week. A three-week run at number is worthy of bragging rights, even if the competition is light. What most will be looking at is the film’s third-weekend drop. It will be better than the 67% dip in weekend two but I’m still expecting another decline by at least half from last weekend. The drops are due to various factors but the main ones are the film’s robust opening weekend and that the film is a tad divisive with fans. That being said, even with a response that isn’t 100% praise, the Doctor Strange sequel has brought in $302.7 million at the domestic box office as of this writing and its global take sits at $715.7 million. No one at Marvel or Disney is complaining about its performance. I’m going to call a $30 million weekend for Doctor Strange in its third outing.

The Bad Guys will dip to third place this weekend after some solid second-place showings behind Doctor Strange. Considering that no one really saw The Bad Guys coming, its modest success is worthy of some praise. It’s not pulling in Disney/Pixar money but I don’t think that was ever intended to be the goal. Dreamworks Animation has a good run here for a potential franchise that could perform even better than this film down the line. It’s more of a bigger picture thing at play here. As of this writing, the film has grossed $67.3 million domestically and $166.7 million worldwide and it’s going to still do decent business coming into this weekend because it’s the top option for families and kids at the moment. I’m calling a $6.2 million weekend for The Bad Guys.

In fourth place, we will find some elevated horror counter-programming from Men, the latest from Ex Machina director Alex Garland. Tracking for Men is similar to another highly-praised horror film this year, X. That film, which registered a 95% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, opened to $4.2 million, but some think that Garland’s name with hardcore movie fans might push Men’s opening a little higher. The film is currently 80% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing and A24 certainly knows how to make these titles have some heat, at least on opening weekend. I’m going to predict about $5.2 million for Men’s opening weekend.

Rounding out the top five will likely be Sonic The Hedgehog 2 which is still going strong at the box office. I’m going to call a $4.2 million weekend for the Sonic sequel which will get the film’s domestic total to about $181 million. A $200 million finish is gonna come up short but it’s going to be very close by the end of its run.

What are YOUR weekend box office predictions?

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