Box Office Predictions: Civil War to have one of A24’s Best Openings

The mighty Titans – Godzilla and Kong – will likely lose their spot at the top of the box office heap this weekend, with Alex Garland’s Civil War aiming to replace it in the top spot. Alex Garland’s provocative and timely work of speculative fiction has got amazing buzz (check out my review here) and looks to become one of A24’s biggest openings ever. It seems like it’s on track to open with $20 million, which would be a solid opening for the $50 million movie. It’s the kind of film that could have solid legs at the box office, and it will get a nice boost by playing premium format IMAX screens. 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should slip to second place, and I’m predicting a $15 million finish. Some folks think a $12 million weekend is more likely, but I’ve noticed the film constantly outperforms expectations, so I’m willing to gamble on it having a less steep fall in week three than people think. 

Monkey Man will likely slip to third place with a $6 million second weekend, which is decent for a movie Universal only bought for $10 million. In fourth place, it’ll be interesting to see whether Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire will be able to hold off The First Omen. The horror prequel opened poorly last weekend and seems poised to lose a significant chunk of its audience (which is too bad as we liked it), but Frozen Empire also seems like it’s losing screens so it could be a tight race between the two. I think Frozen Empire will take fourth place with about $5.5 million, while The First Omen will be in fifth with $5 million, as it starts to make its way to an inevitable launch on Hulu.

Here are my predictions:

1. Civil War: $20 million
2. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire: $15 million
3. Monkey Man: $7 million
4. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire: $5.5 million
5. The First Omen: $5 million

Are you going to see Civil War this weekend? Let us know in the comments!