Box Office Predictions: Can Spider-Man reclaim the top spot?

After The Flash’s disastrous opening last weekend, the big question this week is: what type of tumble will it take? Recent DCEU entries such as Shazam! Fury of the Gods and Black Adam saw substantial declines in their second weekend (69% and 59% respectively). With the front loaded nature of super hero movies, and the general public saying no thank you to Ezra Miller’s presence on the big screen, I think this one will have a second weekend drop more in line with Shazam! and finish the weekend around the $17 million mark.

If there is one film that could potentially take over the top spot this weekend it would be Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse in its fourth weekend as that film has remained neck and neck with Flash throughout the week and has seen relatively small drops week to week. I give the edge to Flash as it is only the second weekend, but I think final numbers between the two will be less than $200,000.

The big new releases this week come by way of the Jennifer Lawrence fronted R rated comedy No Hard Feelings which has run a solid advertising campaign playing up the raunchiness of the film. Although early reviews say the film is not as crass as the commercials would lead you to believe and instead the film is more a coming of age type story. I think this one will all come down to one thing: are you a fan of Jennifer Lawrence or not? Tracking doesn’t seem to have this one as new comedic R rated classic in the vein of an American Pie (speaking of: Dear Universal, its time for a new American Pie movie with the original cast!) I expect an opening between $13-$15 million.

The other “new” release of the week is the expansion of Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City which is going wider (1800+ screens) after having a record breaking opening last week when it put up the best per screen average of the post pandemic world ($140,857). The question is: were those numbers that high because the quirkiness of Wes Anderson is more suited for the people who live in New York and Los Angeles? Or can this be the next big break out hit from the seven time Oscar nominated filmmaker? Anderson is a filmmaker who generally plays in the lower end of the box office with the notable exception being his Best Picture nominated The Grand Budapest Hotel which was able to secure $173 million world wide. The closest comp for City will likely fall with Anderson’s last big screen effort, The French Dispatch which came out in October 2021, had similar reviews (75% on Rotten Tomatoes compared to Asteroid City’s current 73%) and totaled $46.3 million worldwide. Anderson is always able to secure some big name talent to his films, so perhaps the addition of Tom Hanks into the fold will add a few butts in seats and this one can see an expansion in the $6-$7 million range.

So with two new films aimed at an adult audience, the next question of the week is can Pixar’s Elemental be salvaged from its disastrous opening weekend which saw it become the second lowest opening ever for a Pixar film, but when you consider the worst opening ever for a Pixar film is 1995’s Toy Story which would launch a billion dollar franchise and be released at a time when ticket prices were much cheaper, Elemental’s opening is far worse. Will families head to theaters to see this tale of the elements or did the company completely ruin their theatrical model by releasing 3 of their last 4 films directly to streaming while giving a short window to last years under-performing Lightyear?

Rounding out the top five should be Transformers: Rise of the Beasts which last week saw a substantial 66.1% drop from its opening weekend. This week should start to see the film even out with smaller week to week drops, coming in around $10 million. While its domestic numbers are a far cry from the days of the Michael Bay helmed movies, Beasts is posting some solid numbers overseas as it nears the $200 million mark in international numbers. Im not sure what this films break even point is, but with a reported $200 million budget, I can’t imagine we are anywhere near hitting it.

Do your weekend plans include taking in a film? If so, let us know what you plan on seeing gin the comments and don’t forget to check back on Saturday when we have a brief update on where this weekend’s numbers are heading.

TOP 5 PREDICTIONS:

1. The Flash– $17 Million
2. Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse– $16.8 Million
3. No Hard Feelings– $14 Million
4. Elemental– $13 Million
5. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts– $10 Million