After several weeks of disappointing openings, Hollywood has its fingers crossed that the old-school star power of Will Smith returning to the Bad Boys franchise will give moviegoers a push to return to theaters. Indeed, the well-reviewed four-fuel has the benefit of opening hot on the heels of the franchise’s biggest entry to date, Bad Boys For Life, which made over $200 million domestically. It opened to a gargantuan $62 million, and while Bad Boys: Ride or Die seems unlikely to make that much money, it should still do decently. I’m predicting an opening in the $40 million range, which would be an ok number for a franchise that, previously, was curiously light at the box office. Let’s remember that the first movie only actually made $65 million domestically, while the huge-budget sequel, Bad Boys 2, was considered something of a flop in 2003 when it made “only” $138 million, despite opening at the height of Will Smith’s fame.
So why will Bad Boys: Ride or Die open on the lower end of expectations? There are two reasons. One reason, which I think is the more serious one, is that audiences are seemingly falling out of the habit of seeing anything that’s not considered an event. Die-hard fans of the franchise will certainly turn out to see it, but will it have the same crossover appeal the others did? Maybe or maybe not, because let’s not forget that the movie is opening at a time when Will Smith’s star power has seemingly gone into the decline post-Oscar slap. That said, the box office here will be the ultimate judge over whether or not that’s actually a thing.
Ishana Night Shyamalan’s The Watchers should open in second place in the $12 million range. Usually, horror is solid counter-programming, but I think the fact that this is partly fantasy-driven might turn off some hardcore horror fans. Still, that’s not a bad opening at all. The Garfield Movie should fall to third place with about $8 million, while John Krasinski’s IF should manage to slide into 4th place with $7 million. I predict Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga will do about $6 million this weekend, as it seems more or less a fait accompli that, for whatever reason, audiences aren’t turning out to see this one theatrically. Hopefully, it will make more of an impact on streaming.
Here are our predictions:
Are you going to check out Bad Boys: Ride or Die this weekend? Let us know in the comments.