Box Office Predictions: Radio Silence’s Abigail could drain the life from The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare

Last Updated on April 25, 2024

Two highly anticipated films are released this weekend: Radio Silence’s Abigail and Guy Ritchie’s The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare. However, the release pattern for the latter is highly unusual, with Ritchie’s big-budget war epic only getting a theatrical release in the United States, skipping theaters in Canada and the UK in favor of an exclusive run on Prime Video later. As such, it’s not expected to make much of a dent at the weekend box office, with it looking like Abigail will pull off an easy win.

Currently, we’re predicting Abigail will make about $20 million. That’s much less than what Radio Silence pulled off with the Scream films. Remember, though, that this is an original horror title with a twist on classic vampire folklore. So far, the reviews have been mixed, with our man, Mike Conway, loving it, while others have accused it of being a tad goofy. Even still, it looks like a fun horror outing in the vein of the directing duo’s last original title, Ready or Not. It’ll be interesting to see what the CinemaScore on this is, with the hot cast, including ex-Scream star Melissa Barrera, Kathryn Newton, and Dan Stevens, which is likely a draw.

Second place should go to Alex Garland’s Civil War, which many folks think will be rather front-loaded. It should make about $12 million for a final tally in the $60 million-ish run, which should make this pretty profitable for A24 once foreign box office and digital profits are tallied up. The CinemaScore is B minus, which suggests its polarizing audiences, which isn’t too much of a surprise given how controversial it is.

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare looks to open in the $10 million-ish range. That seems very low for the Henry Cavill-led war flick, but the release strategy is weird. If it’s not opening in Canada, its chances of really over-performing are limited. Thus this might be another Guy Ritchie movie that ends up being more popular on streaming than in theatres. What a shame. As a Canadian, I’d like nothing better than to plunk down my 20 bucks to see this in theaters this weekend, but it’s not to be. Heck, there’s even a chance this could be outgrossed by CrunchyRoll’s Spy Code x Family: White, which should make at least $6 million. It’s hard to tell with this anime film.

Here are our predictions for the weekend:

1. Abigail: $20 million
2. Civil War: $12 million
3. The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $10 million
4. Spy x Family Code: $6 million
5. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire: $3 million