Box Office Prediction: Avatar The Way of Water finally arrives

To quote Heath ledger’s Joker: And Here We… Go!

This weekend sees the highly anticipated release of Avatar: The Way of Water. The sequel to the highest grossing movie of all time. A film that ushered in a new era of movie making with the re-emergence of 3D and the big screen spectacle. I have a friend who never goes to the theaters to see movies, even he went to see Avatar on the big screen when it originally came out.

So the big question is: how much is this sequel going to make this weekend. Projections have been all over the place with some saying it can go as high as $200 million domestic and even secure over half a billion in just its first weekend worldwide. Obviously the closest comp for this film would be the 2009 original, which actually opened relatively soft when you consider it eventually became the highest grossing film of all time with just over $77 million. But word of mouth kept the original in first place for 8 straight weekends and it didn’t have an over 30% week to week decline until its 12th week and it didn’t drop out of the top ten until its 17th week. 

Before last week the biggest question of all was: is the film actually going to be good? Well, reactions started pouring in (including an 8/10 review from our own Eric Walkuski) that have called the film unlike anything you have ever seen and that James Cameron has yet again proved himself a filmmaker you should never doubt.

So with all of that said, let’s get down to the dollars and cents: how much can this film take in on its opening weekend? Tracking has this one sitting around $160 million, but as I said some people are seeing this one fly way higher at around $200 million. They are using Spider-Man: No Way Home as a barometer due to that film having a projected weekend take of $130- $170 million and blowing away those projections by coming in at $260.1 million. I don’t see that type of gap between projections and actuals for Avatar due to one big reason: at 2 hours and 28 minutes No Way Home was considered long, how many people are going to balk at Avatar’s 3 hour and 12 minute run time? So with those factors and the fact that some audiences may not be in a rush to go out and see the film in packed theaters at a time when the flu and covid are having big resurgences (but they still want to see it on the big screen, they just want to wait a bit until the chaos dies down) I am going to split the difference on projections and say this one can get to the $180 million mark this weekend. Plus, let us not forget the film did secure two Golden Globe nominations this week for Best Picture and Best Director in addition to a slew of other nominations from various film groups.

So enough about Avatar already! Another question for this weekend is can a rising tide lift all boats? Will a film as big as Avatar: The Way of Water see other films in the marketplace reap some of the run off benefits of walk up business who get to the theater and realize all the good seats are taken so they decide to see something different until they can get their optimum seats. Short answer: probably not! Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has had a solid run in first place over the past 5 weeks but the people that were dying to see it, have seen it! I’m actually going to go a bit bold this weekend and say that Violent Night has a chance of actually beating Black Panther and coming in second place with a $5 million finish. The film has been playing solidly during the week and as Christmas gets closer, people may want to take in some nice R rated yuletide cheer. 

The big expansion this weekend is Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale featuring a much talked about performance by Brendan Fraser (which I recently learned is pronounced like razor and not like the type of Christmas tree most of us buy). The film secured the highest per screen average of 2022 last week and the expansion to over 500 screens should see this one enter the top ten, although I think it will fall just outside the top five. 

Are you amped for Avatar: The Way of Water? Will you be venturing out to theaters this weekend to see it, or are you going to wait a bit to make sure you have that buffer seat next to you? Let us know in the comments and don’t forget to check back in on Saturday when we give a brief update on the weekends numbers.

TOP 5 PROJECTIONS:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water– $180 Million
2. Violent Night– $5 Million
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever– $4.5 Million
4. Strange World– $2.5 Million
5. The Menu– $2 Million