Box Office: Moana and Wicked both break Thanksgiving Day & Black Friday records

Last Updated on December 2, 2024

Saturday UPDATE: The box office bonanza for Moana 2 and Wicked continued on Black Friday, with the Disney film making $54 million to Wicked‘s $32 million. Moana 2 seems sure to pass the $175 million five-day-opening the studio called earlier this week, with it looking to earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $215 million. Wicked should make about $140 million, with the expectation being that the buzzy title should play well over the holidays and may wind up as the year’s top-grossing movie. Gladiator 2 seems on track for a $45 million total for the holiday, with it looking to finish the weekend with $132 million, with it having a real shot at a $200 million domestic gross. Check back tomorrow for the final numbers!

UPDATE: According to Deadline, Moana 2 grossed $28 million on Thanksgiving, which is a record for the holiday. Wilder still is the fact that the runner-up at the box office, Wicked, with $16.9 million actually has the second-highest grossing haul ever for that day, with the previous record holder being Frozen 2 with $14.9 million. Estimates for the five-day holiday for Moana 2 are between $175-200 million, while Wicked will make in the $110 million range. Gladiator II is a distant third with about $45 million. There’s a good chance the sequel will end its theatrical run with a higher gross than the $187 million made by the first film, although adjusted for inflation, it’s way off.

ORIGINAL POST: Disney’s incredible year at the domestic box office continues, with Deadline reporting that Moana 2 made a gargantuan $57.5 million on Wednesday (including Tuesday previews), which gives the company the single best day they’ve ever had for a Walt Disney Animation title. That’s not too far behind Pixar record-breakers like Incredibles 2 ($71.2 million) and Inside Out 2 ($63.5). Despite those big numbers, I’m expecting Moana 2 to fall short of $200 million over the holiday weekend, with word of mouth a good (but not amazing) A-minus, as reported by CinemaScore. Even still, that will be a massive win for the company, with Moana 2 having started life as a Disney Plus animated series before being reformatted (rather late in the game) to a theatrical tentpole. With numbers like that, clearly, they did the right thing.

So, how is the “Glicked” phenomenon fairing? Well, Wicked is playing to boffo business, making over $20 million yesterday. We think it will finish the holiday weekend in the neighbourhood of $95 million, which would be stunning and pave the way to a $4-500 million domestic finish. Just make sure not to wear green makeup to your screenings, folks!

Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II, which has gotten a mixed reaction from critics and fans alike, is still performing well, with the smart money saying it’ll dip about 50% in week 2, meaning a $27 or so million weekend, and $40 or so million for the holiday. That would put its domestic total well above $100 million, although it might be a slow crawl to $200 million if it can make it to the double-century mark at all. 

Red One and Best Christmas Pageant Ever should round out the top five, with neither likely to lose much of their audience given how big the holiday is for family outings to the theatre. Red One should make $12 million, while Best Christmas Pageant Ever should do about $4.5 million.

Here are our predictions:

1. Moana 2: $110 million
2. Wicked: $65 million
3. Gladiator 2: $27 million
4. Red One: $12 million
5. Best Christmas Pageant Ever: $4.5 million

What are you seeing this holiday weekend? Let us know in the comments.