Black Panther gearing up to beat Tomb Raider to win fifth box office weekend

Last Updated on August 2, 2021

BLACK PANTHER has been in theaters for a solid month and it hasn’t stalled for a moment. The movie is closing in on $600 million domestically and has made $1.1 billion around the world. That’s a ton of dough, and normally by a movie’s fourth weekend they’ve just about made all the money they’re going to make, but PANTHER has been laughing in the face of expectations for a month.  As the movie approaches it’s fifth weekend, industry estimates predict the movie will win out yet again against several newcomers.

As of now, the current industry insiders are predicting PANTHER will come out on top against newcomers like TOMB RAIDER, LOVE, SIMON and 17 DAYS IN ENTEBBE. The prediction is that PANTHER is aiming for a $25-30 million weekend, not that far down from last weekend's $41 million total. Should PANTHER win yet again, it will be the first movie since AVATAR to win five straight weekends at the box office. 

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When it comes to this week's competition, the clear frontrunner will be TOMB RAIDER, which is expected to open between $20-25 million. This should make for a close battle at the box office, but it is worth noting that PANTHER was also expected to have a close battle with Disney’s A WRINKLE IN TIME last weekend, all before PANTHER came out almost $10 million ahead ($41 million to $33 million).  

A factor in RAIDER's favor is that the movie is getting much better reviews than typical video game-based movies. Though the current 51 percent score isn't fantastic, it is much better than past highly-anticipated video game films like ASSASSIN’S CREED and WARCRAFT, which were decimated by critics (18 percent and 28 percent, respectively). This could help the movie as it tries to get a broader audience, with the fact the movie has a female hero (Lara Croft, played by Alicia Vikander) being a major marketing push.

As for the other movies, WRINKLE is expected to come in at number three with around $15-20 million, while SIMON could nab anywhere between $10-15 million. SIMON has garnered fantastic reviews (90 percent score), but it may have trouble breaking out with so many big movies out. Meanwhile, ENTEBBE probably won't crack the top ten with an 800 theater rollout.

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Frankly, I expected WRINKLE to top PANTHER, but the fact that now PANTHER should even beat TOMB RAIDER is amazing to me. There's no roof to PANTHER's success as it just keeps making more and more money. At this rate, the movie should top AVENGERS' total ($623 million) by next weekend, making it the biggest superhero movie ever at the domestic box office. And to think, we thought AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR had this year's crown in the bag.

Which movie are you going to catch this weekend?