Argylle on track for a disasterous opening; won’t crack $20 million dooming potential franchise

Last Updated on March 5, 2024

It looks like Matthew Vaughn’s ambitious plan for a superspy multiverse franchise is DOA, with his most ambitious film to date, Argylle, opening under expectations at the box office this weekend. According to Deadline’s stats, the film, which Apple acquired for a hefty $200 million, is set to open with a modest $16.5 million. This is a pretty disastrous opening for a would-be franchise movie. What makes it even worse is that the Cinemascore for the movie was a dire C+, meaning that word-of-mouth is pretty poor. Usually, an underperforming blockbuster would open in the B-range, suggesting a substantial day-to-day plummet for the film. It may come in well under Deadline’s estimates when all is said and done.

This opening aligns with the $15 million I predicted earlier this week. However, as one of the few critics who enjoyed it, I’m dismayed by its bad performance. One thing working against it is the bait-and-switch marketing. The film is sold as a Henry Cavill-led spy movie when he has a minor role. That said, Cavill in the lead isn’t a mark of box office gold either, with his (excellent) spy movie, The Man From UNCLE, opening to a poor $13.4 million in 2015.

The only thing working in its favour is that Argylle is a streaming play for Apple TV+, with Universal distributing it theatrically. Their other big-budget theatrical movies, Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon were in the red when they left theatres. However, at $156 million and $219 million, respectively, they earned a lot more money than the supposedly commercial Argylle will likely end up with.

Otherwise, The Beekeeper, Wonka, and Mean Girls will continue to perform well, while the Christian TV series The Chosen, which has episodes in theatres this weekend, will perform modestly. Most people who wanted to see this series on the big screen came out on Thursday night.

Did you see Argylle? Do you think it deserves to be a bigger hit, or did you hate it? Let us know in the comments.